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Radio Free Europe
- November 14, 2026 09:25
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Within a few years, the external borders of the European Union (EU) could become Kosovo's borders with Albania and Montenegro.
This perspective is becoming more concrete, as both countries are advancing in the membership process, while Kosovo is stalling on the path towards European integration.
Mali i Zi ka mbyllur përkohësisht 23 nga 33 kapitujt e negociatave dhe Komisioni Evropian vlerëson se mund t'i mbyllë të gjithë deri në fund të vitit 2026. Shqipëria, ndërkaq, ka mbyllur 4 nga 33 kapitujt dhe ka hapur grup-kapitullin e fundit. Ajo synon t'i përfundojë negociatat deri në fund të vitit 2027.
On the other hand, Kosovo applied for EU membership on December 15, 2022 and is still waiting to receive candidate country status.
The latest report by the European Commission highlights the stagnation of reforms in Kosovo, in the context of a protracted institutional crisis. This crisis was characterized by difficulties in the constitution of the Assembly and the formation of institutions, while within a period of about a year the country held three parliamentary elections.
Experts on European integration, economics, and security believe that Kosovo should prepare for the eventual membership of Montenegro and Albania in the EU.
According to them, these developments could affect the movement of people and goods, create new conditions for Kosovar businesses, and change regional cooperation in the field of security.
The gap with neighbors in integration and security
Albania and Montenegro's progress towards EU membership could deepen Kosovo's political distance from its neighbors, but also create differences in regional cooperation in the field of security.
Tefta Kelmendi, a researcher at the European Jacques Delors Institute, estimates that Kosovo has already lagged behind neighboring countries, as a result of the political crisis and the lack of progress in the dialogue with Serbia.
"Considering the progress of neighboring countries in the last four years and, in comparison, Kosovo's stagnation as a result of the political crisis in the country and the lack of progress in the dialogue with Serbia, which has affected both the European integration process and diplomatic relations with EU institutions and member states, a considerable distance has been created that will be difficult to overcome in the near future," Kelmendi told Radio Free Europe.
According to her, if Montenegro and Albania join the EU within four years, Kosovo may face greater internal pressure to accelerate European integration.
This development, however, as Kelmendi estimates, could also have a positive impact, restoring the trust of citizens and political representatives in the European perspective.
According to her, Pristina should commit to accelerating internal reforms, especially in the rule of law and diplomacy, as well as overcoming political obstacles on its EU integration journey.
"A wise strategic approach would be for Kosovo to engage as soon as possible and intensively in removing political obstacles to its advancement in the integration process, including the issue of non-recognition by five EU member states, which would enable the unblocking of its candidacy in the Council of Europe," Kelmendi emphasizes for REL.
According to Kelmendi, Kosovo must intensify diplomatic engagement with EU institutions and member states to unblock its candidacy. In parallel, it must advance reforms that would enable its integration into the EU's common market.
The gap with neighbors is not limited to the political integration process.
Jeta Loshaj, from the Kosovo Center for Security Studies (KCSS), estimates that the gap with neighbors could also deepen in the field of security, where Kosovo already has a more unfavorable position in relation to access to European cooperation mechanisms.
Currently, Kosovo is the only country in the region that does not have an operational agreement with Europol. The current working agreement, from 2020, does not allow for the exchange of personal data, although practical cooperation has increased.
"Once the neighbors are within the EU, this asymmetry will deepen," Loshaj tells REL.
According to her, inequality with neighboring countries within the EU could create difficulties for Kosovo in combating organized crime and other cross-border threats.
She says criminal groups treat the region as a single space and exploit places where controls and information exchange are weaker.
"If our neighbors are fully integrated (in the EU) and Kosovo is not, a gray area could be created that is used for trafficking, smuggling and irregular migration," says Loshaj.
Also, according to her, the eventual membership of Montenegro and Albania in the EU will bring rules and standards of this bloc in border management, stricter controls and more involvement of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex).
Kelmendi adds that the eventual membership of Montenegro and Albania in the EU will be felt in relation to Kosovo in the additional requirements that the bloc has for the free movement of citizens.
"To cross the border and access personal property or visit family members in these two countries, Kosovo citizens would need to travel with a valid passport, pay special insurance for vehicles entering the EU, and will face restrictions on the length of stay," Kelmendi emphasizes.
This will particularly affect how citizens of Kosovo and those of Albania and Montenegro will cross each other's territory. Currently, this is made possible by biometric ID cards.
Loshaj explains that existing regional agreements on movement with ID cards do not automatically expire with Albania and Montenegro's EU membership. According to her, the greatest impact on the movement of people would be felt if these two countries were to also enter the Schengen area, as this does not happen simultaneously with EU membership and usually takes several years.
Then, according to her, some practical questions remain.
“Çfarë do të ndodhë me pikat e përbashkëta kufitare dhe sa do të zgjasin pritjet në verë? Liberalizimi i vizave e ka zbutur shumë këtë rrezik, por Kosova duhet t'i adresojë këto çështje që tani, në mënyrë që kufiri të mos bëhet pengesë për njerëzit”, thotë Loshaj.
From CEFTA to the EU market: challenges for Kosovo exporters
If Albania and Montenegro join the European Union before Kosovo, their trade relations with Kosovo will develop within a new framework of rules.
Gazmend Qorraj, professor of economics at the University of Pristina, estimates that this change would bring a structural transformation in trade relations between these countries.
"Practically, upon entering the EU, Albania and Montenegro will be obliged to apply the EU's Common Commercial Policy and will automatically withdraw from the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA)," Qorraj tells REL.
According to him, trade with Kosovo would be based on the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA), which Kosovo has had in force since 2016.
Qorraj estimates that one of the main challenges for Kosovar exporters will be non-tariff barriers, related to the standards and requirements of the European market.
"Exporters who already have trade experience with EU countries will find it easier to adapt, while for those who do not have this experience, this transition will pose a new challenge, due to the stricter requirements and regulations of the EU market compared to the regional market of the Western Balkans," he tells REL.
Adapting to the demands of the EU market would be particularly difficult for small and medium-sized businesses, estimates Lulzim Rafuna, president of the Kosovo Chamber of Commerce.
"Although a small proportion of large exporting companies (especially in the wood processing, plastics and IT sectors) have managed to become certified for the EU market, the vast majority of small and medium-sized enterprises do not have the financial and technical capacity to make this transition within a short time," he tells REL.
Rafuna warns that if Albania and Montenegro join the EU, Kosovar exporters will face strict phytosanitary and veterinary requirements, as well as EU quality standards. According to him, the lack of information and limited laboratory capacities in Kosovo for testing products could make it difficult for businesses to meet these requirements and weaken their competitiveness in both markets.
"Among the most exposed sectors are agribusiness and food processing, construction materials producers, as well as the transport and logistics sector," says Rafuna.
Rafuna adds that additional customs controls and procedures at the border could cause delays and increase costs for Kosovo carriers.
How should Kosovo prepare?
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reached out to the Kosovo Government to obtain its position on the potential political, economic and security consequences of Albania and Montenegro's potential EU membership, including the impact on the movement of citizens, cross-border cooperation and trade relations.
Po ashtu, REL-i kërkoi të dijë se çfarë masash konkrete po planifikon Qeveria për t'i mbrojtur interesat e Kosovës dhe për të avancuar integrimin evropian të vendit. Deri në publikimin e këtij artikulli, Qeveria nuk u është përgjigjur pyetjeve.
All REL interlocutors, from different perspectives, emphasize the need for Kosovo to prepare for the changes that Albania and Montenegro's EU membership may bring.
Ata kërkojnë angazhim më të madh të institucioneve, marrëveshje me dy vendet fqinje dhe masa për t'i ndihmuar bizneset kosovare të përshtaten me kërkesat e reja.
Kelmendi says that to make up for lost time due to the political crisis and problems in the dialogue with Serbia, Kosovo must accelerate efforts to unblock its candidacy for EU membership.
Ndërkaq, për t'i çuar përpara reformat e brendshme që do t’ia mundësonin integrimin në tregun e përbashkët evropian, sipas saj, Kosova mund ta shfrytëzojë mbështetjen financiare të BE-së.
"The EU has already created the framework to help candidate countries advance in this direction, through the Growth and Reform Plan and the financial means that support it. Now it remains for the Government of Kosovo to politically engage in this process and place it on the list of top priorities," Kelmendi tells REL.
In the field of security, Loshaj estimates that Pristina should negotiate bilateral agreements with Tirana and Podgorica on security and border control before their membership.
"These agreements should include joint patrols, joint contact centers, joint border points and information exchange. They should be drafted according to EU standards, so that they remain valid even after membership," Loshaj tells REL.
According to her, Kosovo can deepen cooperation with Europol in fighting crime, with Frontex in border management, and with Eurojust in judicial cooperation in criminal matters, without affecting the issue of its status.
Loshaj adds that Kosovo needs to strengthen data protection, the integrity of border controls and the capacities of the Kosovo Police. According to her, concrete results in these areas would demonstrate Kosovo's readiness to cooperate and would help it seek gradual inclusion in EU security operations.
To prepare businesses, Qorraj requires prior engagement from public institutions and business associations.
"Public institutions and business associations should prepare local businesses in advance through information and training focused on EU standards," says Qorraj.
Përveç informimit dhe trajnimeve, Qorraj vlerëson se institucionet dhe shoqatat e biznesit duhet t'u kushtojnë vëmendje të veçantë eksportuesve që nuk kanë përvojë me tregun e BE-së, në mënyrë që ata të përgatiten për kërkesat dhe rregulloret më të rrepta të këtij tregu.
Rafuna considers that the Government of Kosovo should undertake concrete measures, including subsidizing product certification and standardization, investing in local laboratories, and negotiating special trade protocols with Albania and Montenegro.
"We need to work towards a transitional agreement with Albania and Montenegro: The government should negotiate now special trade protocols or transitional 'green corridors' for the period after their accession, in order to facilitate customs procedures for products originating from Kosovo," Rafuna emphasizes.
Ai gjithashtu sugjeron që Qeveria të krijojë një fond që do të mbulonte deri në 70 për qind të kostove të certifikimit të produkteve. Sipas Rafunës, mbështetja financiare do t'u ndihmonte bizneseve, veçanërisht ndërmarrjeve të vogla dhe të mesme, të përmbushnin standardet e kërkuara për tregun evropian.