The resolution of territorial disputes also includes other countries and not only Kosovo and Serbia, so we must listen to what they think about this issue, says Cornelius Adebahr, an expert on EU foreign policy, near the Center, in an interview for Radio Free Europe. for Policy Research, Carnegie Europe.
According to him, the European Union expects a final agreement between Kosovo and Serbia to be reached before the spring of next year, while emphasizing that it does not guarantee immediate recognition of Kosovo by the five EU countries, as they will analyze it based on the internal concerns they have.
Radio Free Europe: The European Union has already set several deadlines such as 2025 for the integration of some Western Balkan countries, however there are divisions within the EU on this issue. Finally, the president of Slovenia, Borut Pahor, said that the integration should be postponed because of the problems with BREX. Even the President of France, Emanuel Macron, has not shown enthusiasm for the rapid membership of these countries. How can this reflect in the Western Balkans?
Cornelius Adebahr: There are no deadlines for the integration of the countries of the Western Balkans, but only economic and political criteria. These must be met by the candidate countries and it is no secret that these criteria have become tougher since the "Big Bang" enlargement of 2004, just as EU regulations have become more complex.
So precisely because appetites for new membership are low in some member states, and managing the UK's exit from the EU is a major pressure and concern, it is essential that aspiring countries implement the necessary conditions. After all, reforming their political and economic system against EU standards is in their interest, regardless of when they might join the EU.
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Kosovo in an unfavorable situation in the EU enlargement agenda
Radio Free Europe: How do you see the progress made by the countries of the Western Balkans towards EU integration?
Cornelius Adebahr: Progress has been slow in most countries and much slower in others. It is the regular reports of the European Commission that provide more details in this regard, and the word "progress" has already been deleted from the titles of these reports.
Russia, Turkey and China towards the Western Balkans
Radio Free Europe: The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker, said before the European Parliament that other actors could extend influence in the Western Balkans if the EU neglects it. Who do you think threatens the Balkans if the postponements of these countries' membership in the EU continue?
Cornelius Adebahr: I repeat, it is not the European Union that postpones the possible membership deadlines of the countries of the region, but it is precisely these countries that are not yet ready for membership. Let's emphasize that the EU is aware that Russia, Turkey and China are countries that, at different levels, have made offers for the Western Balkans that seem attractive to politicians or citizens or both.
However, none of these actors can offer the prospect of long-term support through membership, nor comparable financial assistance. So "not to neglect the Balkans" is one aspect, and the other aspect is to accept the new member countries ahead of time, which is actually a reckless action.
Radio Free Europe: Western countries have expressed concern with increasing Turkish influence in the Balkan region. Trade between the Western Balkans and Turkey has increased from 430 million dollars in 2002 to 3 billion dollars in 2016. In your opinion, what is the main interest of Turkey, but also of Russia and China, in expanding its influence in the Balkans?
Cornelius Adebahr: Increased trade is good for the region, which obviously should not rely only on doing business with the European Union. However, if the countries of the Western Balkans aspire to become members of the EU, they must adopt the rules of market access, transparency, rule of law and so on. This would help distinguish between good and bad business regardless of which country it comes from.
Radio Free Europe: On September 30, a referendum will be held in Macedonia to resolve the name issue with Greece. In recent days, we have seen very high visits of representatives of the EU, USA and NATO to this country to give impetus to the positive vote in this referendum. How important is this referendum for the region?
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Two years after Kosovo's application, the EU says discussions are taking place among member states
Cornelius Adebahr: The solution of the "name issue" through the compromise between Macedonia and Greece would send a strong signal to the entire region, would unlock Skopje's path to membership in the European Union and NATO, and would also serve as an example of the solution of negotiated disputes. Failure of this process, either in this month's referendum or later ratification by Athens, would be a major setback. This is why European actors are giving such support to the compromise.
The countries of the region should also be consulted about changing the borders
Radio Free Europe: Another important process in the Balkans is the talks between Kosovo and Serbia for the normalization of relations. Finally, the idea of changing the borders as a long-term solution has surfaced. What is your rating?
Cornelius Adebahr: As is the case with the name issue (Skopje-Athens), if both countries resolve their differences through compromise, this should, in principle, find support. However, it makes a difference whether you are trying to resolve name disputes, which primarily concern only two countries, or whether you are trying to resolve territorial disputes that involve other countries as well. Throughout the history of the former Yugoslavia and also from the wars of the 90s, this issue is not only of concern to Kosovo and Serbia.
"The change in the position of the USA has changed the situation"
Radio Free Europe: However, not everyone supports such an idea. The United States has said that they have no red lines while Germany, but the United Kingdom has also expressed itself openly against changing the borders? How do you rate this?
Cornelius Adebahr: Until recently there was an international consensus not to change the existing borders. The change in the US position has changed the situation. However, after my previous argument, I must say that it is not only a matter of what the Western powers think, but also how the neighboring countries from - Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania and even Bulgaria and Greece - see the possible results of this process.
Radio Free Europe: When do you expect Kosovo and Serbia to reach a final agreement? Does it provide Kosovo with recognition from the five EU member states and UN membership, as the leaders of Kosovo's institutions are hoping for?
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Two years after Kosovo's application, the EU says discussions are taking place among member states
Cornelius Adebahr: For understandable reasons, the EU authorities would like to see a conclusion before next spring, when the current mandate of the European Commission ends. This is because the transition after the European Parliament elections consumes a lot of time and energy.
Plus, Brussels would like some good news after Great Britain leaves the bloc at the end of March 2019. The readiness of the five countries that have not recognized Kosovo depends on how they evaluate the agreement reached, based on the concerns of their internal So we can increase the list of countries whose opinions should be heard, such as these five countries.
