It would be very unfortunate for Kosovo to be forced to once again go through the difficult experience of creating a Government that would accommodate its pleasures, instead of dealing with the very serious problems that the last twenty years have created for it. incompetent politicians and extortionists of the public good
NISMA's complaint submitted to PZAP resulted in sending 1472 polling stations to be recounted, of which it turned out that 65 had already been recounted. When it is taken into account that about 800 polling stations were recounted beforehand, it turns out that almost 90% of the votes this time were recounted in the most boring election process we have had so far. However, what is very important for the INITIATIVE is that the votes from Serbia have all been canceled, and as a result, based on the notes before the recount, it appears that this party with its partners can still cross the threshold.
Postponing the INITIATIVE with barely
All the acrobatics that we saw from the second day after the elections lead us to the conclusion that this whole circus is done to introduce the INITIATIVE with difficulty in the Assembly, and to weaken the two parties that without this subject had a sufficient number of votes for to create the new Government. We don't know what happens in the NRC, because there are no cameras there, as was the case with the counting of votes, when it was decided who would be the mayor of Pristina in the last elections. The responsibility to avoid possible abuses in the recount is a matter for party commissioners, who, in principle, should protect the vote.
The key issue for NISMA to cross the threshold was the work of votes coming from Serbia. The CEC had in its hands the decision to cancel those votes immediately. But no, he allowed them to be counted, moreover, the drama of "poisoning" was caused and then the show of counting them with masks almost like we are in Chernobyl. It was not known what caused the poisoning, if it was poisoning; it was not known who were affected by this poison or allergic reagent; it was not known whether these votes were quarantined and disposed of as toxic material, nor was it known in whose interest the extra delay caused by their counting to arrive at the point where these votes were declared invalid.
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About 88% of polling stations are being recounted, the process is nearing completion
The other issue, which did not pass, was the work of votes from the diaspora that had started on time but arrived late. These were not cancelled, because the Supreme had once decided to accept them. NISMA had counted on many votes from abroad, taking into account its partner AKR and Pacolli's supporters, but the calculation did not turn out as planned.
What he probably did not plan well from the beginning is the recount itself that is happening now - that even there there may be movement in the numbers, and there may not be a full guarantee that the threshold has been passed, despite Limaj's insistence that " justice was served". A statement that comes from someone who has been in power for a long time and who is known for many abuses of power together with his people, especially in the past government.
Possible plan
In any case, assuming that NISMA crosses the threshold, VV and LDK will be forced to fight for the four more votes they need to achieve a simple majority. If they want the real takeover from PAN, the last thing on their mind is to invite the INITIATIVE to the Government. And even less the Serbian List, because they don't need either. Their advantage this time is that they can count on the votes of the non-Serb minorities, provided that their appetites are satisfied, because each community is asking for it from a minister. As the LVV and LDK themselves have emphasized, the new government should have 12 ministries, one of which belongs to the Serbs, and the other to other non-Serb minorities. If each community were to win a ministry, then the Albanians would be the minority in the government, and this does not seem like a very feasible possibility. Even less will it seem like a fair solution.
If the insistence of the minorities is that each community has its own ministry, it is better to go to new elections, because this would not be logical at all. And if LVV and LDK decide, in case of crossing the threshold, to invite the INITIATIVE to the Government, then they would eventually break the principles and promises on which they won these elections. And they would extend the life of a group of small parties that have done a lot of damage to the previous government, which they themselves tried to overthrow.
On the other hand, it is another moment that slightly complicates the work, as far as the allocation of the highest state positions is concerned. What we have now shows that the VV will be done with the post of the Speaker of the Assembly and with the Prime Minister. The position of the head of state, although not on offer now, remains as a topic for which the LDK probably insists on negotiating. This practically brings us back to the situation of the 2014 elections and the PDK-LDK agreement for Thaçi to be elected president. The much-criticized vote of the majority of LDK deputies brought the man to this post, who will soon be able to do without him.
In the hypothetical situation, which I mentioned last week, that Thaçi accepts the invitation to The Hague and resigns before the certification of the results, Kosovo would be in an unprecedented situation: to have a resigned prime minister, not to have Constituted Assembly, neither Speaker of the Assembly nor, ultimately, Head of State.
So, if this happens like this, then the only option to go forward is that after the certification of the elections, the Assembly is constituted, and that the Speaker of the Assembly is elected, who, according to the Constitution, would exercise the office of the President of the State for no more more than six months. The constitution of the Assembly would be key for two reasons: one, that there would not be a vacuum and that the new Government could be elected, because the mandate would be given to the mandate by the acting head of state, who is also the first or the first of the Assembly.
Who is the president?
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The recount towards the end revealed many manipulations
The winning parties that want to create the new Government have already said publicly that they have managed to agree on the governing program, which will not be made public before it comes to the Assembly. However, the LDK insists on not talking at the level of leaders until the certification of the results, which could prolong the agony created by these elections, which started well and are ending just as well.
It is always becoming more evident that the LDK wants the post of the head of state for itself, and that this will probably be a significant obstacle in reaching the co-governance agreement. Who would be the candidate of the LDK for this position, this will ultimately be a matter for the party bodies, but maybe the LDK would have to think about a new cadre, over 35 years old (as the Constitution stipulates) with sufficient intellectual capacity and experience to undertake this obligation. This is, of course, if the VV agrees to negotiate this position in this package as well.
And if the LDK thought that Vjosa Osmani could be a good candidate for prime minister, there is no reason not to think that she could also perform the job of head of state, even though this would mean that Osmani would had to withdraw from all party obligations. Maybe this would also fulfill the goal of a wing within the LDK: for Osmani to get out of the game within the party.
The issue of the head of state is also an issue on which the parties can come to an agreement even later, because Thaçi's mandate expires in April 2021. And they can agree even at the hypothetical moment of his resignation - and objectively it should not be the problem that would prevent the creation of the new Government. If it becomes such a big obstacle that it cannot be overcome, again, it is better to go to new elections, and overcome the deadlock, than to prepare to watch another long telenovela about the lack of institutions, where the outgoing government will still to have time to take a series of decisions with budgetary and political implications.
* * *
Just as they started counting the votes (until last night only 170 polling stations were counted) it turns out that we will need at least 16 working days to count them all. This roughly means that we will have the results at the end of this month or the beginning of the next (so two months after the elections) and that we can have the constitution of the Assembly by the middle of December. If there is an agreement between the winning parties, the Government can be elected immediately. If not, we will be left without a budget, and in the meantime, maybe we will be forced to go to new elections.
So, however bad the prospect of being subjected to the torture of counting and recounting votes in a pair of eventual new elections, perhaps this is a better solution than having a government built on glass legs and conditionalities that prioritize they give to narrow interests rather than general ones.
It would be very unfortunate for Kosovo to be forced to once again go through the difficult experience of creating a Government that would accommodate its pleasures, instead of dealing with the very serious problems that the last twenty years have created for it. incompetent politicians and extortionists of the public good.
also
The recount was completed in 28 out of 38 municipalities.
The ball is in LVV and LDK's court. The responsibility seems to be greater than ever. For both subjects, this will be the biggest test. The fall from him will have consequences for them as well, but mostly for us.