For decades, the European Union has relied on an unwritten rule: Germany led the economy, while France led the military. But this old order is rapidly collapsing. As Germany prepares to become Europe's leading military power, the continent's political balance is being shaken. France is struggling to maintain its role, while in Poland, the rise of German military power is simultaneously stirring up dark memories of the past and hopes that the Berlin-Warsaw axis could become the strongest shield against Russia, writes Politico.
"Germany must take greater responsibility"
Expectations for Berlin are high.
"Wherever I go in the world, from the Baltics to Asia, everyone is asking Germany to take more responsibility," said Christoph Schmid, a Social Democrat MP and member of the Defense Committee in the Bundestag.
"Today there is an expectation that Germany will finally match its economic power with its military power," he added.
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A strong Germany economically and militarily is becoming a reality, and the rest of Europe will have to adapt.
The largest military increase since reunification
Berlin's plan is to spend 153 billion euros a year on defense by 2029, about 3.5% of GDP - the largest military increase since the reunification of the two Germanys.
By comparison, France aims to reach 80 billion euros by 2030, while Poland this year is expected to spend 44 billion euros, which accounts for 4.7% of GDP – more than any other NATO country.
These movements are also being felt strongly in Brussels. One EU official called the change a “political earthquake,” while another diplomat put it more bluntly: “It is the most important development happening at the EU level today.” The question that is being asked is: how “European” will this German military buildup be?
"Germany First" - Berlin is building its own army
The answer lies in procurement policies. Berlin is resisting the European Commission's efforts to take a greater role in arms purchases and is using Article 346 of the EU Treaty to favor local companies.
Internal documents show that Germany plans to approve defense contracts worth 83 billion euros in the Bundestag by the end of 2026, while the Bundeswehr's long-term "wish list" reaches 377 billion euros.
Less than 10% of the contracts will go to American suppliers – a major turnaround after decades of cooperation with Washington. The bulk of the funds will stay within Germany.
France in trouble
In Paris, this move is viewed with skepticism and concern.
Despite President Emmanuel Macron's efforts at rapprochement, distrust of Berlin remains deep-rooted.
"The feeling is between caution and fear. It will be difficult to cooperate with them because they will be very dominant," a French defense official said.
He added ironically: "They don't need to conquer Alsace and Moselle (two regions that have historically been battlegrounds for France and Germany) – they just need to buy them."
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Germany prepares for war
In addition to the historical aspect, France is also concerned about the geopolitical role that Germany intends to take on, especially after tensions over the joint FCAS fighter jet project - a 100 billion euro initiative that is being hampered by technical and political disagreements. For Paris, this project is directly linked to French nuclear strategy.
Warsaw welcomes him, but with caution
In Poland, however, Germany's rearmament is seen as necessary.
"Poland has become an example for NATO in terms of military spending. But we cannot ask others to spend more on defense, and then tell Germany: 'Not you,'" said former ambassador Marek Magierowski.
However, memories of the past remain vivid.
"Every time Germany combines economic and military power, history reminds us of fear," said Polish Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski.
He added that Germany's strengthening is a response to signals from the US about reducing the American presence in Europe, and that Poland and Germany will be the main pillars of defense on NATO's eastern flank.
But even here there is uncertainty due to the rise of the extreme AfD party in Germany, which is seen as pro-Russian.
"If the AfD comes to power, that is worrying. Their program talks about reviewing the borders with Poland - something that should never be opened in Europe," a Polish official said.
The center of power is shifting eastward.
All these developments indicate that Europe's political and military center of gravity is shifting eastward.
Germany is becoming not only the economic engine, but also the pillar of the European military industry, while France is maintaining its role through nuclear weapons, and Poland is emerging as a major conventional power on NATO's eastern flank.
For the European Union, this is a crucial test: will it manage to channel this energy into common structures, or will it face a new fragmentation of defense?
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For now, Berlin's actions are seen more as taking responsibility than as seeking dominance. But even supporters admit that the scale of change is daunting.
"Yes, it's something big, even a little scary. But Germany is part of the EU and NATO - and a lot can change by then," said an EU diplomat.
