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Translated by: Flutura Gashi-Mehmeti
- August 17, 2026 11:14
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The agreement that US President Donald Trump signed in Versailles in June set an ambitious 60-day deadline to end the war with Iran and reach a deal on its nuclear program.
The deadline expired on Monday and both sides are further away from an agreement than they were then.
The talks, although Iran denies they are taking place, have focused on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US blockade on Iran, which were supposed to have been carried out under the interim agreement.
There has been no sign of compromise on the strait, nor any indication that detailed talks on the nuclear program have begun.
Meanwhile, the US has no good alternatives to end the war it started alongside Israel.
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Accepting Iran's latest demands would mean giving it control over a critical international waterway, through which a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas passed before the war – and would be tantamount to admitting defeat.
Escalating the war would further deplete America's stockpile of advanced missile interceptors, shake the global economy, and raise fuel prices ahead of US congressional elections.
Therefore, both sides have stuck to their positions, hoping that the other will withdraw first.
So far, none have done this.
The June agreement, known as the Memorandum of Understanding, called for a halt to all military operations and set a 60-day deadline for reaching an agreement that would finally end the war and resolve the long-running dispute over Iran's nuclear activities.
It provided for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but gave Iran a vaguely defined role in facilitating traffic, leaving open the possibility that after the 60-day deadline it could impose tariffs.
Iran has relied on this point to claim that it has the right to control this waterway.
A week after the deal was signed, Iran began firing on ships using a route along the coast of Oman, on the other side of the strait. This route is patrolled by the US military and is intended to bypass Tehran's control.
The US has responded by striking Iran, which has retaliated by attacking Arab countries where US forces are deployed, such as Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
The US has revoked exemptions provided for in the agreement, which had allowed Iran to sell its oil on international markets, while Trump has reinstated the blockade on Iranian ports.
Both sides have accused each other of violating the June agreement, of which almost nothing is now left.
The fighting eventually subsided. A ceasefire related to the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been largely respected, although Israeli troops continue to occupy large areas of the country's south.
Iranian officials say they halted negotiations with the US in June, although they acknowledge that messages were passed through intermediaries.
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Trump says talks have continued and occasionally claims progress has been made, as he backs down from threats of major attacks.
Pakistan, which played a key role in brokering the June deal, noted last week that the deadline was set to expire on Monday, while expressing hope that it would be extended.
"We are not closing this chapter," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi.
"Pakistan is making every effort to bring both sides to the negotiating table," he added.
Earlier this month, Iran presented a list of demands for the reopening of the strait, including lifting the US blockade, withdrawing US forces from Iran's vicinity, and paying reparations for damages caused during the war launched by the US and Israel on February 28.
Even in this case, Iran has said that it will control the strait, and potentially impose tariffs – through an agreement it is negotiating with Oman, and that the strait will not be returned to its previous state, as an open, toll-free waterway.
Meanwhile, Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, have launched attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening another important trade route, which had been used to relieve some of the pressure caused by the closure of the strait.
Trump has rejected Iran's demands, saying it is official Tehran that should pay war reparations and claiming that the US controls the strait.
He appears to be relying on economic pressure, in the form of a blockade and long-standing sanctions, to force Iranian leaders to surrender.
Iran's economy has been hit hard by war and isolation, while inflation has risen sharply.
The crisis could spark renewed anti-government protests, similar to those brutally suppressed in January.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which increased immediately after the interim agreement, has now fallen again.
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Rising prices for fuel and other commodities are expected to rise further the longer this situation continues, with consequences that will be felt far beyond the Middle East.
The clock continues to tick for both sides.
