Game changer

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is a turning point in the history of American elections. This election was not simply a reaffirmation of the trend of people around the world who embraced change in last year’s ‘election superpower’. It is about a new president with a clear mandate who is sure to bring about policy changes in line with his transactional approach to politics, trade and international relations. Some of these changes could be decisive for the future of the European project in the Western Balkans.
The key appointments show that Trump sees this electoral triumph as a confirmation of his belief that populism on social issues, job creation, border security, ending wars, trade, and an “America First” foreign policy is the way forward for the country and a way to dominate the US-led system without being held hostage by traditional allies and certain commitments. His appointees are individuals who believe in the selective use of American power. In a way, their core position is that they only care about American interests and that others should only care about themselves.

Shifting priorities

Meanwhile, the geopolitical context has changed dramatically since Trump's last presidency, including the two main fronts of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East, the lack of strong leadership at the European level as a result of the crushing electoral losses of the main elites in Germany and France, the formation of an alternative alliance - instead of adhering to the rules-based international order - by countries with a significant geography and population, and a more complex and competitive international architecture.

Thus, a cloud of confusion hangs over the future of US-European relations. The Obama administration marked the beginning of a shift in US strategic priorities, shifting away from Europe towards Asia and the Pacific. When NATO was created, the US had many people in its ranks who came from Europe or had been there because of World War II. Here, Cold War liberalism was nurtured, shaping the ideology that held the alliance together.

Joe Biden will be remembered as the last Euro-Atlantic president in the White House with a worldview shaped by the Cold War. Trump’s foreign policy team has a completely different worldview. They see Asia as center stage. While Europe no longer has the same importance, either strategically or culturally. This will be a fundamental challenge for Europeans who, since the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin Wall, have considered their relationship with the US to be one based on shared values ​​and interests, with a focus on collective security, the rule of law, fundamental human rights and freedoms, and a transparent and multilateral free trade system.

Three pillars of the current European order are being challenged: bridging the gap between Europe and the US, through the creation of the Euro-Atlantic community; bridging the gap between internal and external affairs, through the EU's deepening policy; bridging the gap between the core and the periphery, through enlargement and neighbourhood policy. The EU needs to repair the above pillars, of which only one concerns its cooperation with the US, while the other two depend entirely on the will of the EU member states.

The Western Balkans at a crossroads

Of the crises facing Europe, security is the most pressing. Trump has promised to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. While this is a desirable goal for all, the prospect of a lasting peace or ceasefire is slim. So it remains to be seen how this goal can be achieved, what steps will be taken, and whether or not coordination with European allies will be maintained. And above all, what the future of Ukraine will be.

Viewed through the prism and web of frozen or unresolved conflicts in Europe, the way this war ends will have an inevitable impact on the security architecture of Europe, including the Western Balkans. It will also be a game-changer for the European integration project. The weakening of Euro-Atlantic relations does not bode well for the Western Balkans, where the US is seen as the guarantor of the security perimeter, while Europeans are allergic to the use of force. This implies the need for increased vigilance to strengthen the deterrent capacity of KFOR troops in Kosovo and EUFOR in Bosnia and Herzegovina, two critical points for regional security.

During the first Trump administration, two key agreements were reached in the Western Balkans: the Prespa Agreement, on the name issue between Greece and North Macedonia, and the Washington Agreement, on the economic normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, which at the same time secured the recognition of Kosovo by Israel. Although the aforementioned agreements were important for regional stability, the EU missed an opportunity to anchor the countries of the region in its fold. Even more worrying is the EU’s failure to resolve the political disputes and statehood issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, which are key to regional progress. In particular, the EU’s policy towards Kosovo is fragmented, with 21 recognizing, 5 not recognizing, and Hungary following its own policy. This division paralyzes the EU’s ability to act cohesively to resolve the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo and secure their EU membership.

The West’s exercise of value-free geopolitics, as a pacifier, in the absence of an EU accession process for the Western Balkans, has enabled the region’s leaders to translate heightened geopolitical rivalries into their own power advantages. Transactional agreements, whether driven by an obsession with migration (Italy-Albania), access to natural resources (Germany-Serbia) or the military industry (France-Serbia), are some examples that show how the EU can be ‘reshaped’ as a result of compromises, at the expense of democracy and the rule of law in the Western Balkans. These actions undermine the EU’s capacity to appear as a united actor in the Western Balkans, making citizens feel that they are not part of the European family, but its periphery where problems are thrown.

There is nothing worse in politics than defending a status quo that does not work and that fails to ensure democracy and prosperity. There is a big difference between defending values ​​and defending the status quo through false stability. In this context, Trump’s return to the White House should be seen as a game changer for clarifying common goals and the future of the European project in the Western Balkans.

‘Europe’s hour has come,’ Luxembourg’s foreign minister, Jacques Poos, proudly declared in 1991, as he led the EU’s efforts to find a solution to the conflict that had just erupted in the former Yugoslavia. Indeed, it was US determination that stopped the wars and secured peace. A quarter of a century has passed since the end of the wars in the region, and the EU has yet to demonstrate its ability to anchor the Western Balkans in the EU. The US game changer requires accelerating the European project in the Western Balkans. The EU must rise to this challenge.

(Article published for the journal 'International Politics and Society')