Assad's last night in Damascus?

13 years after the outbreak of the civil war in Syria, it seems that the end of the dictator Bashar al-Assad is coming. The rebels, mostly Islamists, are closing in on Damascus.

1.

The latest dramatic turn in Syria's bloody, years-long conflict began on November 27. Within days, the rebels against the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad achieved several important victories.

They captured the city of Aleppo, which is the country's second largest metropolis after Damascus. Then they took other cities and started the march towards Damascus. For many, the offensive came as a surprise, but in reality it had been planned for months, as fighters and observers in Syria reported to the German magazine DER SPIEGEL.

2.

For those who have forgotten: the war in Syria began in 2011, 13 years ago, when President Bashar al-Assad responded with violence to protests in many parts of the country. As a result of al-Assad's brutal campaign against his own people, according to United Nations estimates, more than 300 people have already been killed. After escaping the fall early in the war,

Assad managed to consolidate power. In 2020, the various armed groups and the al-Assad regime reached a ceasefire. By then the dictator controlled two-thirds of Syria. His rivals controlled important territories in the north of the country.

3.

US President-elect Donald Trump wrote on social media on Saturday about the situation in Syria: “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS. THIS IS NOT OUR WAR. LET IT DEVELOP. DO NOT MESS!” (In cases where he thinks he is speaking about important events, Trump writes in capital letters).

Trump also argued that if Syrian rebels succeed in ousting President Bashar al-Assad, it "could actually be the best thing that could happen" to Russia, arguing that it is too busy fighting in Ukraine has no time to stop Syrian rebel fighters.

4.

Who are the Syrian rebels fighting Bashar al-Assad? Following is a presentation of these groups, according to CNN: Syria's rebel coalition is made up of Islamist and moderate factions who, despite their differences, are united in the fight against the al-Assad regime, ISIS and supported militias. from Iran.

Some of the groups that form this coalition are:

Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS): The most important and powerful group is HTS, also known as the Levant Liberation Organization. HTS was founded by Abu Mohamad al-Jolani, a military commander who gained experience as a young fighter for al-Qaeda against the United States in Iraq. He founded Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, and led the group until its public split in 2016 over ideological differences and opposition to ISIS. Jolani formed HTS in 2017. Despite Jolani's efforts to distance HTS from al-Qaeda and ISIS, the US and other Western countries designated it a terrorist organization in 2018 and placed a $10 million reward for its capture.

Syrian National Army (SNA): this group includes dozens of factions with different ideologies that receive funding and weapons from Turkey. Part of the group is the National Liberation Front and the Ahrar al-Sham faction, which also aims to overthrow the Assad regime and establish an "Islamic state governed by Sharia law." The situation is complicated by the fact that some members of the insurgent coalition are also fighting against Kurdish forces. Last week, the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army said it had taken control of the town of Tal Rifat and other towns and villages in the northern part of Aleppo province. Those territories were not controlled by the Assad government, but by another faction involved in the multi-sided civil war, called the Syrian Democratic Forces.

The Syrian Democratic Forces are mainly made up of Kurdish fighters from a group known as the People's Protection Units (YPG), which is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey.

In southern Syria, fighters from the Druze religious minority are also involved in the war. The Druze are fighting in the southern town of al-Suwajda, which is located near Dara province, where opposition forces claim to have taken control of Dara city.

5.

It seems panic reigns among al-Assad's army. More than 1000 soldiers have arrived in Iraq through a border crossing in eastern Syria. Iraq's state news agency, citing a military source, announced that "Iraq has today received more than a thousand Syrian army soldiers through the al-Qaim border crossing in Anbar province." The president's office announced that Bashar al-Assad has not left Damascus, despite the fact that the rebels are advancing towards the capital.

"Some foreign media are spreading rumors and fake news about the departure of President Bashar al-Assad from Damascus, or about urgent visits to another country," the presidency announced in a statement on Saturday. "The president is pursuing his national and constitutional work and duties from the capital, Damascus." The question is - how much? And is this al-Assad's last night in Damascus?

Russia is trying to do "everything" to "not allow terrorists to prevail" in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Saturday. Since 2015, Russian jets have been helping Bashar al-Assad's forces in strikes against rebel fighters. Lavrov admitted that Russia is supporting the Syrian army with air forces. "What is the forecast? I can't guess. We don't make predictions."

6.

Apart from Russia, al-Assad is supported mainly by Iran and Hezbollah, an influential Shiite militia in Lebanon. After Israel's harsh attacks, Hizbullah has weakened considerably and is unable to support the Syrian army as it has been until now. Because of the war in Ukraine, Russia has shifted its focus there and neglected Syria. Al-Assad's opponents seem to be exploiting this vacuum. Turkey also plays an important role in this conflict: since the beginning of the war, it has been one of the main supporters of the Islamic fighters in Syria fighting against al-Assad.

7.

The Arabic-language newspaper "Sharq al-Awsat" based in London comments on the situation in Syria like this: "Since 2015, it seemed that the fall of al-Assad was inevitable. But he managed to escape politically once again. Today, however, the circumstances are different. The recent war between Israel and Iran, as well as its allies, has paralyzed Tehran.

If Iranian troops now cross the Syrian border, Israel may intervene. Al-Assad is mainly hoping for military help from Russia. But time is short, as armed factions are closing in on Damascus and Russia is engaged in a larger war in Ukraine. Al-Assad can only hope for a miracle, and this miracle can come in the form of talks with Turkey."