Who will model democracy now?

Dani Rodrik

Some of the most successful democracies outside Europe are small countries that remain under the radar in discussions of democratic decline. Taiwan, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Mauritius and Botswana, all of which scored highly in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s democracy rankings (the latter two are particularly notable as examples of long-lasting African democracies). Perhaps our hopes for reigniting the flames of democracy should rest on these unusual cases. Like everything else, democracy needs inspiring models to follow. Even if the commonplace examples of scholarship are no longer valid, there are still places where defenders of democracy can find hope.

As a teenager growing up in Istanbul, I was fortunate to be part of a generation that had close at hand democratic models to follow. European countries like Great Britain, France, Germany, and Sweden nurtured our aspirations for prosperity and democracy, giving us hope for the future of our imperfect political order. The experiences of these countries showed us that economic growth, social justice, and political freedom are not only compatible, but also mutually reinforcing.
But where will young people look today for a similarly hopeful message? Liberal democracy once seemed destined to be the wave of the future. But now, democratic backsliding is a global phenomenon, of which Donald Trump’s America is the most visible and dramatic example. Since the early 2010s, “electoral autocracies” – regimes that hold periodic elections but under conditions of widespread repression – have become the dominant form of government around the world. Nearly 220 million fewer people live under liberal democracies today than in 2012.

Moreover, even “electoral democracies” – a form of regime that could pave the way for liberal democracy – have lost ground, governing 1.2 billion fewer people than in 2012. These regimes have been replaced by electoral or de facto autocracies, which today rule over over 5.8 billion people (2.4 billion of whom have been added since 2012).

As a beacon of democracy, Europe no longer shines so brightly. The European Union played a major role in strengthening democracy during Eastern Europe’s transition from socialism, as the Czech Republic and Estonia became among the world’s most respected liberal democracies. But many others – notably Poland, Hungary and Slovakia – have regressed significantly, while the EU has been powerless to do anything about it. Slovakia’s Prime Minister, Robert Fico, recently joined Russian President Vladimir Putin, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, and dozens of other authoritarian leaders in Beijing to help President Xi Jinping celebrate Chinese military might.

Leading European countries can rightly claim that their democracies have not suffered as much of a blow as America’s. But Europe today projects neither economic strength nor political cohesion. Its self-confidence seems to have reached its lowest ebb, as evidenced by the way the EU has caved in to Trump’s tariff threats.

European leaders long hoped that integration would increase the region’s power and influence on the global stage. Instead, the EU seems to have become a “permanent halfway house” that feeds paralysis. Its institutions and processes discourage countries from acting boldly on their own, while it lacks the capacity to formulate and pursue a shared vision.

As democratic Europe fails to project influence beyond its borders, those who do manage to wield power on the global stage are no longer role models to follow. Few could have expected the United States to take such a profound authoritarian turn, as Trump has transformed the country into a malign actor almost overnight. He has also made it easier for China to present itself as the “responsible adult in the room,” and Xi has happily donned the mantle of “sovereign equality,” “international rule of law,” and “multilateralism.”

But no one should be fooled about the nature of China's regime. Its economic achievements are no reason to imitate its politics. China remains a deeply authoritarian country, where minorities are oppressed and political opposition is strictly prohibited.

To find democratic bright spots, we need to look to unexpected places. For example, Brazil and South Africa – two middle-income countries – share the rare distinction of having, after coming to the brink of authoritarianism, recently pulled back.

Jacob Zuma's tenure as South African president between 2009 and 2018 was characterized by authoritarian populism and widespread corruption, while former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro refused to accept electoral defeat and planned a military coup (and the assassination of his opponent) in 2022. However, both were succeeded by leaders with strong democratic credentials – Cyril Ramaphosa in South Africa and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil.

What makes these successes remarkable is that they have occurred under circumstances that political scientists consider particularly unfavorable to democracy. Not only do South Africa and Brazil have deep ethnic divisions, they are also among the most unequal countries in the world. Thinkers since Aristotle have argued that the absence of a large gap between rich and poor is a prerequisite for sustainable democracy; but the experiences of Brazil and South Africa offer a much more complex picture—one that emboldens defenders of democracy.

There is good news elsewhere, too. Late last year, when South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law for the first time since 1980, democratic forces and parliament responded. Within a matter of weeks, Yoon was impeached and removed from office. Chile has also managed to remain a stable democracy since the end of the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990).

Some of the most successful democracies outside Europe are small countries that remain under the radar during discussions of democratic decline. Taiwan, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Mauritius and Botswana, all of which received high ratings in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s democracy rankings (the latter two are particularly notable as examples of long-lived African democracies).

Perhaps our hopes for reigniting the flames of democracy should rest on these unusual cases. Like everything else, democracy needs inspiring models to follow. Even if the commonplace examples of scholarship are no longer valid, there are still places where defenders of democracy can find hope.

(Dani Rodrik, professor of political economy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, is president of the International Economics Association and author of the book: “Shared Prosperity in a Fractures World: A New Economics for the Middle Class, the Global Poor, and Our Climate.” This view was written exclusively for the global journalism network “Project Syndicate,” of which “Koha Ditore” is also a part.).