Trump's curious harmony with Biden

Trump and Biden couldn't be more different individuals. But if we ignore the daily noise and look a little beneath the surface, we will realize that there are actually very few fundamental differences in Trump and Biden's foreign policy.

Although only two weeks have passed, it seems as if Trump has been president for a year. The intensity of developments has blurred our sense of time. And it's not our fault. Within these two weeks, Trump has announced his intention to annex Greenland and Canada, take over the Panama Canal, change the names of mountains and oceans, impose tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, close USAID, clear Gaza of Palestinians, etc., etc. Such an intensity of developments would be enough to fill the mandate of an entire presidency, let alone its first two weeks.

Many have tried to give an ideological explanation for Trump’s actions, thus placing the Trump presidency in the category of unconventional American presidencies like those of President Nixon and Reagan. However, I think that the best explanation for the behavior of the Trump presidency has been offered by his longtime strategist, Steve Bannon. Some time ago, Bannon advised Trump that in the exercise of presidential power, the real enemies are not the Democrats, but the media. And the best way to fight the media is to “fill the public discourse with shit.” To create as much confusion as possible. So the idea is to produce so much news that (1) the media will not have time to verify everything that is said and done, and (2) the intensity of developments and news creates the impression in the vast majority of American citizens that something is happening and things are moving in the right direction. And what is really happening is not important because politics is a show – it is theater. Anything can be true and nothing can be true. The goal is to create a confusing environment where facts lose their importance and truth becomes relative. In this environment, the most powerful voice then becomes the absolute truth. And there is no voice more powerful than the voice of the President of the United States.

And that is exactly what we have seen over the past two weeks. Trump has flooded public discourse with an avalanche of decisions and statements. The picture that has emerged is that Trump has set America on a radically different political course than Biden’s. An America that puts America’s interests first. But if we ignore Trump’s noise and look a little beneath the surface, we will realize that there are actually very few fundamental differences in the foreign policies of Trump and Biden.

Both presidencies have treated China and Russia as “strategic competitors” to the US. Biden has continued (and in fact tightened) Trump’s tariffs on China imposed during his first presidency. He used Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to advance Trump’s policies of increasing NATO defense spending and the economic and energy independence of the European continent from Russia. He implemented Trump’s agreement with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan. And like Trump, he refused to renew the nuclear deal with Iran and used the conflict in the Middle East to further degrade Iran’s military capabilities. In the Middle East, Biden embraced Trump’s Abraham Accords and continued Trump’s good relations with Saudi Arabia’s MBS—whom he had declared a dictator during the campaign.

And now that the baton has passed to Trump, it is likely that Trump, despite the public narrative, will continue Biden's key policies. In fact, he has now confirmed some of them. Trump continued to support Ukraine with weapons, continuing Biden's policies towards Russia. At the same time, like Biden, Trump will continue to insist on increasing NATO defense spending and the EU's economic and energy autonomy from Russia. Similarly, Trump is continuing to provide Israel with "carte blanche" of comprehensive political and military support. It is self-evident that Trump will further deepen cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Like Biden, Trump will continue to oppose the rise of China and will continue to cement the US presence in the Pacific - either directly or through alliances such as the QUAD. 

If you want, look at our region. Biden's policies in our region have been essentially identical to the policies of the Trump administration. Both have projected their policies on the importance of maintaining the alliance and partnership with the key actor in our region – Serbia. Not because they love Serbia, but because it is actually the most important factor in our region. And this will definitely continue during Trump's second presidency.

“E pluribus unum” has been the motto of the United States since its founding. You find it on flags, official logos, public buildings, banknotes – everywhere. And you find it in foreign policy too. “Out of many, one” reflects the American approach that despite their internal disagreements on the international stage they will always be represented united. This is also the reason why the consistency of American foreign policy is not a novelty. At least since World War II, the change of administrations from Democrats to Republicans and “vice versa” has never changed the main vectors of American foreign policy. They have not changed because they are dictated by structural factors such as historical traditions, political values, cultural aspirations, natural resources, geography and economics. And these foundations of American politics in their nature do not change quickly. This is also the reason why no single presidency to date has managed to change them. Trump will not change these either.