Putin will continue with the game of dividing the countries of the West and I would not be surprised at all if his satellite in the Balkans, Serbia, causes new unrest in the Serbian Republic of Bosnia, in Kosovo and in Montenegro.
I had just started writing my Diary and at the same time I was listening to the BBC news on the other phone, during the journalist's direct connection from Kiev, the alarming sirens of the capital were heard for the first time. The journalist also informed that somewhere in the distance earlier about five explosions were heard, but they were distant, not in the city.
Even the Russian state television, in the morning, broadcast the statement of the president, Vladimir Putin, who said that they had started with "special military operations" and that no one should interfere in them, because then all the blame for the sudden bloodshed would be fell on Ukraine.
So, what I was dreading for months and had highlighted several times in my Diary, is now unfortunately happening. Russia will start its war for the invasion of Ukraine and the end or the end of this whole adventure is hard to know.
Putin has exploited to the maximum the weaknesses of the West, America and Europe in particular. He will certainly have calculated the economic sanctions, but against his benefit with this action in his calculus, "it is worth occupying Ukraine for the price of sanctions from the Western world".
On the other hand, all the statements of the American president, Joe Biden, NATO, the EU that the West will not enter into a direct war with Russia, only facilitate the calculation of the maximum possible losses for Putin.
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Ukraine declares that it is ready to defend itself, and its Government's approach to reality changed only during the last 36 hours, because until now it was skeptical that there would be an all-out Russian attack on Ukraine and that there was no room for panic.
In the last 36 hours, Ukraine has declared a state of emergency, invited more than 30.000 reservists to join the regular army, and most recently, the president of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, called for the introduction of martial law in the country.
The European states, as well as America, introduced some limited sanctions against Russia, but to be honest, Russia has already made those calculations and I don't think that anything has taken them by surprise.
How long Ukraine will be able to resist Russian aggression and how bloody that war will be (and all indications are that we will be dealing with a very aggressive war with many victims) are determining elements that will seal the fate and future ambitions of Russia.
If I am based on the speech of President Putin, which he made on Monday, where he actually did not even recognize the state of Ukraine and denied the entire history related to it, for me it was like a "déjà vu", words which I had heard them more than three decades ago from Slobodan Milosevic. It was eerily similar to the narrative that Putin is already using. The consequences of these statements are very clear to me and they will become clear in the coming days and weeks. Now Vladimir Putin has entered the path of no return.
We should understand that the new world order is already being rewritten here. All international agreements, legally binding for all signatory parties, the sovereignty, integrity of a country, which is also part of the United Nations, are now worth nothing.
The expansion of the strong is being justified simply by the exercise of his strength over the weaker, and all aspirations are easily and easily fulfilled simply by subduing the weaker.
In fact, this is also a flagrant violation of the Charter and Articles of the United Nations, of which Russia is a permanent member and has the right to veto. The complications caused on the global geopolitical scene will be of an unforeseen and unprecedented magnitude.
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The next question, which will arise in the heads of many politicians, governments, their populations is: Will there be a Third World War?
In my opinion, it just depends on Putin's appetites as to how far and how far he is willing to go with his expansionist appetites. As for Ukraine, he had previously measured all the pulses and counter-reactions of Western countries and the democratic world and we are already in the position where we are, but will his ambitions end only there with Ukraine, I for one remain very skeptical and whether we like it or not, I think we will also see the other countries, which will gradually enter the vortex of expansion and ambitions of a tsarist Russia in the west of the XNUMXth century.
Sorry to sound so pessimistic and that I don't see things painted in pretty colors in the near future, but according to my logic of this bitter reality, I don't see how there can be any other outcome. Putin will continue with the game of dividing the countries of the West, and I would not be at all surprised that his satellite in the Balkans, Serbia, causes new unrest in the Serbian Republic of Bosnia, in Kosovo and in Montenegro. Thus the West would have several hot potatoes on its hands at the same time, and knowing by now very much how Western states respond to such situations, Russia will make the most of the situation on the ground to destabilize the West and NATO members themselves.
At the weekend, the visit of the Russian spy chief to Belgrade, Petrushenko, is expected, while last night the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vucic, asked for 48 hours before Serbia officially pronounces its position on the situation in Ukraine and Russia. As you can see, nothing here is random and not staged.
It is good that all of us are mentally prepared for the worst, since here we are no longer dealing with rational people, but with dreamers of dark dreams, which can be the nightmare of humanity.
I don't want to spread panic, but at the crossroads in which the world finds itself today, someone has already entered the red. In spite of all the traffic lights and traffic rules even in the case of malfunctioning traffic lights, someone flagrantly violated them. Whether this irresponsible driver will stop at the next traffic light, I think depends on the momentum he already gained at the first traffic light, which he already ignored. How many accidents this irresponsible driver will cause remains to be seen. If only his life was in question, no one would have been so upset, but that his irresponsible driving could hurt many innocent participants in the traffic or around him. This is exactly what is worrying.
What will be the next steps of the international community in response to the Russian aggression in Ukraine? Will economic sanctions against Russia alone be enough? I remain a big skeptic here and I think that Putin and Russia have done their calculations even against the strictest sanctions. Even so, at the end of the day, they will hit the poorest strata of the population, who no longer possess reserves of their wealth, as oligarchs and corrupt politicians do.
New world maps are being written, as will values, as well as the new world order. A world superpower with a rich nuclear arsenal attacks the neighboring country and plans a full invasion. How to counter him? The war in Ukraine and the protection of Ukrainians from the Russian occupation will certainly turn into a bloody war, as both sides will pay a very high cost in the loss of human lives.
also Will Ukraine survive?I am already writing under emotional pressure and it can often lead to a loss of rationality as well.
My prayers remain with the innocent Ukrainian people and that Western leaders wake up from their slumber and realize that they are dealing with a schizophrenic lost in time and space.