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By:
Richard Haass
- 12 May 2022 11:31
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Diplomacy is a tool of national security that must be used, it is not a favor that must be granted, and it will have to be continued to be pursued with Russia. Private meetings between senior civilian and military officials of Western countries and Russia should continue, in order to reduce the risk of miscalculation that could lead to confrontation or worse, and to explore opportunities for limited cooperation.
After more than two months of intense media focus on the war in Ukraine, one story was largely overlooked. In late April, the United States and Russia conducted a prisoner exchange. Russia released an American (ex-Marine) it detained about three years ago, while the US released a Russian pilot imprisoned over a decade ago on drug-smuggling charges.
What makes this exchange significant is that it took place at a time when Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine has brought relations with the US to their lowest point since the end of the Cold War. The US has chosen to avoid direct military involvement in the war, but is doing much to influence its trajectory by aiding Ukraine with large amounts of weapons, intelligence and increasingly advanced training so that it can successfully resist and potentially defeat Russian forces. The US has also taken steps to strengthen NATO and impose tough economic sanctions on Russia.
The war is likely to last for quite some time. Although Ukraine's fundamental interest is to end the war and prevent more death and destruction, President Volodymyr Zelensky's desire for peace is conditional. He seeks to recover the territory that Russia has occupied and to ensure the respect of the country's sovereignty so that, among other things, Ukraine can join the European Union. He also wants all those responsible for war crimes to be held accountable.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, needs to achieve a result that justifies his costly invasion in order not to appear weak and not to be challenged internally. It is unlikely that a peace could be negotiated that would close the gap between these two clearly irreconcilable positions. It is much more likely that the conflict will continue not only for months, but for years to come. This will be the background for US and Western relations with Russia.
One option for the West would be to link the entire relationship with Russia to Russia's actions in Ukraine. This, however, would be wrong, as Russia can influence other Western interests, such as limiting the nuclear and missile capabilities of Iran and North Korea, as well as the success of global efforts to limit emissions that cause climate change.
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Zelensky says full prisoner exchange could start peace process
The good news is that, as the prisoner swap demonstrates, sharp differences over Ukraine need not preclude mutually beneficial business deals, provided both sides are willing to part ways. However, protecting the possibility of selective cooperation will require sophisticated and disciplined diplomacy.
For those who don't know, the US and its partners will have to prioritize and even limit their intentions in Ukraine. This means giving up the talk about regime change in Moscow. We must deal with the Russia we have, not the one we would prefer. Putin's position may be challenged internally (or he may succumb to reported health challenges), but the West is in no position to engineer his departure, much less ensure that someone better replaces him.
Also, Western governments would be wise to sidestep talks of war crimes tribunals for senior Russian officials and stop whining about helping Ukraine target Russian generals and ships. The fight and investigations are ongoing, and the Russians should see some benefit from acting responsibly. The same applies to reparations.
Thus, while Russia will likely be in a worse position economically and militarily as a result of starting this war, the US administration should make clear that, contrary to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's comments, the intention America's goal is not to use the war to weaken Russia. Rather, the US should emphasize that it intends for the war to end as quickly as possible, on terms that reflect Ukraine's sovereign and independent status.
As for the war in Ukraine, the West should continue to provide support to Ukraine and prevent escalation, avoiding direct fighting. The Kremlin, however, must be urged to understand that this tightening is aimed at not expanding the war into a NATO country or introducing weapons of mass destruction, at which point these self-imposed Western restrictions would disappear.
The West also needs to carefully consider its war aims and how to pursue them. The goal should be for Ukraine to control all of its territory, but that does not necessarily justify trying to liberate Crimea or even the entire eastern Donbass region by military force. Some of these goals may be better achieved through diplomacy and selective sanctions relief. But unless Russia's behavior changes, the sanctions should not only remain in place but be expanded to cover the energy imports that are funding the Russian war effort.
Diplomacy is a tool of national security that must be used, it is not a favor that must be granted, and it will have to be continued to be pursued with Russia. Private meetings between senior civilian and military officials of Western countries and Russia should continue, in order to reduce the risk of miscalculation that could lead to confrontation or worse, and to explore opportunities for limited cooperation.
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Ukraine feared that the prolongation of the war would affect the loss of interest of the West
It may be that constructive relations with Russia will not be fully established until the post-Putin era. But this in no way changes the interest of the West that these relations do not temporarily fall below a certain level.
(Richard Haass is the chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations. This review was written exclusively for the global journalism network "Project Syndicate", of which the "Daily Time" is also a part)
