OpEd

Vuçiqi incites tensions, after Kosovo Bosnia-Herzegovina in order

The next act is the end of EUFOR's mandate in Bosnia-Herzegovina in November. It is expected that there will be more turbulence in Kosovo (perhaps also in Montenegro), but Bosnia and Herzegovina is the next regional crisis. The international community and local actors have several weeks to prepare a credible response, at best.

Vuçiqi will continue to raise tensions with Kosovo until the end of October, he may even escalate the situation from where he is. But it does so with an eye on the next big plan: Serbia's plan to sink EUFOR's mandate in Bosnia-Herzegovina at the UN Security Council in November. Dodik is already preparing the ground for a security crisis.

This is being prepared for several months now. Wrote about it over the summer. I am concerned that EU officials and capitals have done too little to prepare. The odds are that Moscow will successfully sabotage the mandate. What happens next is a matter of political will.

Clear, prepared plans must be put in place: for both the EU and NATO to maintain, or even increase, the number of troops in BiH, and activate the punitive consequences for what Dodik and Vuçiqi are likely to do. they will if the Russians manage to sink the mandate.

"Sanctions" is too general a term for an effective policy. For example, in case of a serious step towards secession or a direct threat to the peace and stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republika Srpska entity should leave SWIFT (Association for World Bank Financial Telecommunications vj). Immediately, a financial blow that neither Serbia nor Russia will be able to address easily.

This will also buy time to build the will in the Atlantic capitals for any maneuver on the ground, which will require a physical, kinetic response. Likewise, pro-BiH actors must be convinced to refrain from the harshest forms of unilateral actions, because NATO and others must be held to their word.

If that sounds dramatic, it's because the situation on the ground is bad and getting worse, fast. I am talking on a daily basis with well-informed foreign and local officials, in Bosnia and Herzegovina and throughout the region. I don't know that people have ever been so alarmed. We're heading towards a flash point, fast.

This is why I have spent so much time over the past year following developments in Kosovo and Montenegro. Vuçiqi is on a campaign, like a military campaign. All these events are interconnected and the response must be collective. Like Milosevic, he too is going step by step, one by one.

The worst thing that democratic, Atlantic actors in the region and beyond can do at this moment is to treat the events in BiH, Montenegro and Kosovo as isolated, to allow Vucic to strike a from one. It is imperative to create and maintain a united front. Our collective peace and security depend on it.

As I said, the next act is EUFOR's mandate in BiH in November. It is expected that there will be more turbulence in Kosovo (perhaps also in Montenegro), but Bosnia and Herzegovina is the next regional crisis. The international community and local actors have several weeks to prepare a credible response, at best. Get together.

(Jasmin Mujanović, political analyst and doctor of philosophy at York University, Toronto, is the author of the book "Hunger and Rage: The Crisis of Democracy in the Balkans". This article is taken with the permission of the author from his "Twitter") .