-
By:
Enver Robelli
- February 22, 2025 18:14 AM
- Share to:
...including the parties' positions on Kosovo.
What do the latest polls show?
In all the polls for the elections in Germany, which are being held this Sunday, the conservatives, made up of the CDU and CSU parties, are leading. For easier understanding: the CDU is the party of long-time Chancellor Angela Merkel. The CSU is the sister party of the CDU and operates only in the state of Bavaria. At the national level, the CSU is part of the CDU (for example, within the parliamentary group in the Bundestag, as the German parliament is called).
Second in the polls is the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), or Alternative for Germany, a party declared by the courts to be partially dangerous to Germany's constitutional order. The AfD is a far-right party. It has three main goals: the dismantling of the EU in its current form, the creation of an alternative to NATO, in other words the removal of Germany from this alliance, the restoration of Germany's close economic and trade ties with Russia, and a 180-degree turn in terms of dealing with the past (read: more German nationalism and less or no debate about Adolf Hitler's crimes).
Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats could come in third place. Although even that is not certain. For now, polls show that the Social Democrats can defend their lead over the Greens.
Three small parties - the liberals, Die Linke (The Left) and the alliance of pro-Russian politician Sarah Wagenknecht - are coming in just above or below the 5 percent threshold.
Who will form the new government?
With the new electoral reform, the German parliament will have 630 seats. The party or coalition that secures 316 seats has an absolute majority and can form the new government. The candidate for chancellor of the conservative alliance CDU and CSU is Friedrich Merz, a veteran politician who has been isolated during the years when Angela Merkel was chancellor. Relations between them have been and continue to be somewhat tense. Merkel has pursued a liberal-conservative agenda, while Merz leans more towards more rigid and traditional conservatism.
Since the CDU and CSU are likely to come out on top together, they are expected to start efforts to form a new government. Merz has said several times and very clearly that he will not form a coalition with the right-wing populist AfD party. A coalition of the CDU and CSU with the Social Democrats (if there are enough seats) remains an option, if not, then the coalition could be expanded with the Greens. In such a case, negotiations would be extremely difficult due to the different programs between these three parties. If any of the three small parties enter parliament (which is likely), then things get complicated. For now, it can be said with relative certainty that after the elections, three parties will initially talk about forming a government: the conservatives (CDU and CSU), the Social Democrats and the Greens.
Why does the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have no chance of being in power?
All German parties have ruled out any cooperation with the AfD. Due to its harsh rhetoric against refugees and often foreigners in general, the AfD crosses all lines of acceptable public discourse in Germany. Exponents of this party have promised that when they come to power they will “take out the trash” (this is how other parties, especially liberal and left-wing ones, are labeled). In 2016, an AfD functionary and now a member of the Bundestag wrote on Facebook: “Our generation will suffer the most from the fact that (Angela) Merkel is flooding this country with the poor proletariat of Africa and the Orient. Therefore, the question of turning these people back will become an existential question for our homeland.” One of the most prominent AfD officials, Björn Höcke, has openly declared against the commemoration of Jewish victims of Nazism and criticized a memorial in central Berlin: "We Germans, that is, our people, are the only people in the world who have erected a monument of shame for ourselves in the heart of its capital."
Alexander Gauland, one of the AfD leaders in its early days, has stated about the Nazi period: “We have a glorious history, which lasted more than 12 years. And only if we accept this history will we have the strength to shape the future. Yes, we accept our responsibility for those 12 years. But, dear friends, Hitler and the Nazis are just a bird’s eye view (Vogelschiss) in our more than 1000-year history.” This statement of his provoked strong reactions, because calling the extermination of the Jews just an almost insignificant stain on German history is - to put it mildly - scandalous.
The AfD enjoys great support especially in Eastern Germany, paradoxically in the part where the number of foreigners (including refugees) is smallest.
The traditional and established parties have ignored the problems that some refugees from Arab, Asian and African countries have brought to Germany in recent years. In recent weeks alone, refugees from Syria and other Arab countries have stabbed and seriously injured dozens of people in German cities. During his stay in Munich, where he attended the Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance met with AfD leader Alice Weidel in a hotel. Earlier, the owner of the X platform (formerly Twitter), Elon Musk, addressed AfD officials via a video message from America. Musk more or less complained that Germans talk too much about their past. According to him, only the AfD can save Germany.
What party is the AfD? This is the explanation of the American newspaper “Washington Post”: “The AfD (Alternative for Germany) was founded in 2013 to oppose Germany’s support for bailouts during the European debt crisis. The party grew quickly, focusing strongly on an anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim stance after Germany welcomed more than 1 million refugees in 2015 and mobilizing against restrictions and vaccination obligations during the coronavirus pandemic. The AfD has criticized military support for Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and EU policies to combat climate change (which its manifesto describes as ‘ideologically driven’). It also supports Germany’s exit from the euro currency union.”
What are the positions of German political parties towards Kosovo?
The CDU and CSU, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals (FDP) are supporters of Kosovo's independence, are committed to EU enlargement in the Balkans (despite reservations) and have been working for decades to strengthen Kosovo's institutions. In 2010, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said in the Assembly of the Republic of Kosovo: "The independence of Kosovo has closed the chapter of border-setting and fragmentation in the territory of the former Yugoslavia. The map of the Western Balkans has been definitively defined. Kosovo's independence and its territorial integrity are facts". Chancellor Angela Merkel has also adhered to this position, stressing that the borders in the Balkans are inviolable.
On February 15, 2018, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel (of the Social Democratic Party) visited North Mitrovica. The visit took place a month after the murder of Serbian politician Oliver Ivanovic, who was a political opponent of the “Serbian List” directly controlled by Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić. During his stay in this part of Kosovo, Sigmar Gabriel said that the dominance of organized crime in the Serb-controlled north of Kosovo must be fought. The problem of organized crime must be addressed before other open issues between the two countries are examined, he said. Here we have a situation in which the public administration does not function and organized crime holds the levers of power, Gabriel added. They (the perpetrators of organized crime) do not hesitate to kill people and the international community cannot tolerate this any longer, Gabriel underlined.
The Alternative for Germany, meanwhile, has very harsh stances against Kosovo. One of its MPs has called Kosovo a “failed state” and has opposed the extension of the mandate of German soldiers in KFOR. AfD leader Tino Chrupalla has visited Belgrade several times and met with politicians from Aleksandar Vučić’s regime. Regarding Chrupalla’s visit, German security expert Peter R. Neumann, who is close to the CDU, wrote: “He has no idea about foreign policy. But he always stands on the side of the aggressor.” An AfD spokesperson stated a few years ago: “I have never understood why the KLA criminals, led by the CIA, were more honest men than the Serbian war criminals.” This is the AfD’s vocabulary towards Kosovo.