Hungarian earthquake

The ouster of the Hungarian autocrat shows that democracy can only survive with active citizens. Orbán's defeat is also a blow to his Balkan allies.

1.

It wasn't expected, but it happened. After 16 years in power, Hungarian voters have removed Prime Minister Viktor Orbán from power. He was punished for corruption, mismanagement and massive damage to state institutions. Most people in Hungary were fed up with Orbán's "cultural battle" and his pro-Russian stance. Péter Magyar (Moxhar), the winner of the elections, is expected to become prime minister on May 9, Europe Day. Orbán's spectacular defeat, Moxhar's resounding victory show one thing: democracy can only survive with active citizens. Orbán's defeat is also a blow to his Balkan allies. Everyone did not hide their sadness that a man who shared the same worldview as the Balkan rulers had left the political scene: shout populism and steal as much as you can in the name of "good governance".

2.

While Viktor Orbán ignored journalists and rolled out the red carpet for his propagandists, Péter Magyar held a press conference the day after his victory, which lasted 3 hours. Magyar spoke about many topics, including Orbán's acceptance of some special refugees. During his appearance before the media, Magyar also showed a talent for humor. He called on the two former Polish ministers and the former Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski to leave Hungary as soon as possible. All three have been granted asylum in Hungary, while they are being prosecuted by the justice system of their countries for various criminal offenses. Péter Magyar said: "I believe that they should not buy furniture at IKEA, because they will not be here long." Gruevski's escape in 2018 was spectacular. He secretly left North Macedonia for Albania. In Tirana, Gruevski, who had been sentenced to prison by a Macedonian court, was waiting for him in a car with Hungarian diplomatic plates. The car belonged to the Hungarian embassy in Tirana. From Tirana, in front of the (probably closed) eyes of the Albanian authorities, Gruevski went to Montenegro, from there he crossed into Serbia and from Serbia to Hungary. Not a single border policeman, customs officer, or secret service officer was found alive anywhere. Gruevski's escape also exposed the criminal alliance of Balkan autocrats - in collaboration with Viktor Orbán. Gruevski is said to have learned a few words of Hungarian, but it is not unlikely that he will now be forced to return to North Macedonia - without properly learning the difficult Hungarian language.

3.

A day after winning the election, Hungary's incoming prime minister, Péter Magyar, managed to unnerve Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić with one sentence. Orbán said that he would be happy to meet the Serbian leadership, but "I know what kind of connections exist" between Vučić and Viktor Orbán.

What made Vučić lose his temper was Magyar's accusation that behind Orbán's great friendships with Vučić and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stands a godfather. (Magyar did not mention names, but one can assume that the godfather is Vladimir Putin.) Vučić, who easily loses control, reacted immediately: "Come on, answer, since I know, tell me who the godfather is. There is no connection. This is 'let me talk a little, not to say everything to the end, but so that people think that he is Putin or someone'".
Vučić's answer is involuntarily self-revealing: where the tooth hurts, the tongue goes. Of course, Putin's Russia has been trying for many years to create an alliance of autocrats in Eastern Europe, who would sabotage the EU from within (Hungary and Slovakia) and damage it by becoming centers of Russian influence (the case of Serbia). In fact, these states are already doing this by serving Putin and destabilizing Europe.

There are suspicions that shortly before the Hungarian elections, and in order to provide electoral support to Orbán, an attack on the gas pipeline that supplies Serbia and Hungary with Russian gas was staged in northern Serbia. Both the Serbian and Hungarian sides pompously announced that an attack had been averted. Orbán brought the army to protect the gas pipeline on Hungarian territory. So he produced war photos presenting himself as the defender of Hungarian interests. Between the lines, Ukraine was accused of this alleged attack.

Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party called the whole news about the “attack” on the gas pipeline a deceptive maneuver by Orbán. Magyar has warned that the Hungarian parliament will investigate the circumstances of this “attack”. Vučić now reacted with irritation, saying that “this is not Magyar’s country and he has no authority to conduct investigations in Serbia”.

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) newspaper wrote that after Moxhari's victory, the end of Orbán's network in the Balkans is approaching. The newspaper cites Serbian President Vučić, Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik and Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski as Orbán's main partners in the region. In September 2024, according to the FAZ, Orbán promised Mickoski a loan worth 500 million euros. Businessmen close to Orbán have also bought several media outlets in North Macedonia, for example Alfa television. These media outlets, the German daily writes, regularly report according to the interests of Mickoski and Orbán.