The new order of the enlargement process

We are at the dawn of a new order in the enlargement process. By 2030 the map of the enlargement process could look radically different with new EU member states such as Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova. The question we need to ask ourselves is: where do we want to be in 2030?

This week, the European Commission's latest assessments of the ten countries aspiring to join the EU were published. The published reports provide a beautiful X-ray of the political situation within these ten countries. 

Montenegro is making excellent progress towards EU membership. Podgorica has opened all 33 negotiating chapters and provisionally closed seven of them. Now, after the last two intergovernmental conferences, where Montenegro fulfilled the necessary requirements for the closure of negotiations, four new chapters have been provisionally closed. This makes Montenegro the most advanced country in the accession process. 

The speed of Albania's accession process is unprecedented. Within a year, Tirana has opened almost all negotiation chapters. During this year, significant progress has been made in key areas such as justice, vetting, and the fight against corruption and organized crime. To maintain this pace, Albania needs to accelerate reforms in key areas such as media freedom, the rule of law, and fundamental rights. 

Despite the Russian occupation, Ukraine continues to demonstrate an extraordinary commitment to implementing internal reforms. The intensification of the fight against corruption, as well as reforms in the field of public administration, is directly addressing the foundations of the accession process. If this pace of reforms is maintained, Ukraine, together with Moldova, will be the most serious candidates for accelerated membership in the EU. 

Despite persistent Russian hybrid threats and destabilizing efforts, Moldova has dramatically accelerated its path to EU membership. The will of Moldovan citizens for EU membership was confirmed two months ago with the impressive victory of the pro-Western wing. During the year, Moldova has made the most progress in implementing European reforms of all ten aspiring countries. 

This year's report confirmed that Serbia's integration path continues to decline. As never before, the EU concluded that Serbia's membership process has stalled, due to the huge gap between what the leadership in Belgrade promises at press conferences and what it does in practice. Like everyone else, the EU is now waiting to see what the epilogue of the confrontation between Vučić and the student protests will be. 

The integration path of North Macedonia and Bosnia remains on hold due to domestic political developments. Turkey and Georgia, on the other hand, continue to behave as if EU integration is no longer a realistic option for Ankara and Tbilisi. 

As for us, Kosovo has received a better report than it probably deserved. Despite the fact that throughout this year we have penalized ourselves with political and institutional paralysis, the Report has recognized substantial progress in several important areas. In four chapters, the European Commission has advanced Kosovo’s readiness for EU membership: Chapter 12 – food safety and veterinary and phytosanitary policies, Chapter 14: transport policies, Chapter 19 – social and employment policies, and Chapter 30 – external relations. This makes Kosovo the third country with the most progress in the region, after Montenegro and Albania. Also, the good news was that starting next year, the European Commission will start including Chapter 31: Foreign, security and defense policies in its regular assessments of Kosovo. This act by the European Commission comes as recognition of the continued alignment of Kosovo’s foreign and defense policies with the EU. 

But all this should not give us reason to rejoice. The latest EU enlargement package offers a not very encouraging picture for Kosovo. We are finding ourselves in a situation where other countries are rapidly fleeing us towards the EU, leaving us behind in the group of “problematic countries”. Thus, we can say that the latest enlargement package divides the ten countries aspiring to EU membership into three groups. In the first group are Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova. This group has a real chance of joining the EU by the end of this decade. In the second group are us, together with Serbia, North Macedonia and Bosnia. With each passing year, this group lags behind and becomes even more isolated from the first group. In the third group are the countries that have practically given up on EU membership, as is the case with Turkey and Georgia. 

In other words, we are at the dawn of a new order in the enlargement process. By 2030, the map of the enlargement process could look radically different with new EU member states such as Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova. And the question we need to ask ourselves is: where do we want to be in 2030?