Demographic problems in Kosovo are more serious than thought

In the EU, demographic problems have been a priority for several years now. And despite the measures, the problem has deepened due to the aging of the population. In Kosovo, this problem, which has not been adequately thought about, has become extreme. Kosovo is probably the only country in Europe where, despite the positive birth rate, the number of inhabitants dramatically decreases. With this trend, Kosovo will soon become a home for retirees

Although Kosovo is far from the European Union, for various reasons, it has been hit by a negative trend that the EU is also going through. But unlike the EU, which makes medium and long-term plans to deal with this trend, Kosovo has not made such plans. We are talking about the demographic challenges that manifest themselves through the rapid aging of the population, the large departure of young people from the country, the brain drain, and as a result the rapid reduction of the number of workers. This has been proven by the latest results of the population census, which showed that there are not even 1,6 million residents in Kosovo. And this is not the only disturbing figure. In the last ten years, parallel to the decrease in the number of residents, their average age has also increased, while the number of residential buildings that are empty has also increased.   

In the EU, demographic problems have been a priority for several years now. And despite the measures, the problem has deepened due to the aging of the population. In Kosovo, this problem, which has not been adequately thought about, has become extreme. Kosovo is probably the only country in Europe where, despite the positive birth rate, the number of inhabitants dramatically decreases. With this trend, Kosovo will soon become a home for retirees. Young people will continue to leave Kosovo, the number of births will decrease, while retirees from the diaspora will increasingly decide to spend time in Kosovo. It is their birthplace, and on the other hand, with pensions from Germany, Switzerland, Belgium or Sweden, they will have a better life in Kosovo than they would have in those countries where they worked and where they earned their pension. These are phenomena experienced by some areas in Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal, Mediterranean countries, but not so rich by EU standards. Not only have the compatriots returned, but the British, Germans and others have also come to spend their retirement time in warm countries.        

According to forecasts, Kosovo has a birth rate of 14,4 per 1000 inhabitants, which, despite the decrease and the big difference with the countries of Africa and Asia, makes Kosovo the country with the highest birth rate in Europe. In almost all EU countries, this level is below 10 babies per 1000 inhabitants. But still the greater number of births than deaths in Kosovo per year has not helped to increase the number of inhabitants. This is mainly due to migration from Kosovo, which has been a trend for twenty years. This in the long term will be a great burden for Kosovo, especially considering the excessive number of employees in the public sector compared to the private sector, and the increase in the number of pensioners and other categories that depend on social assistance. All this in the conditions of the non-existence of an efficient health insurance system for citizens. At first glance, this phenomenon appears to be the same as the challenges that the EU is also facing.

At this moment in the EU for every pensioner there are 2,6 employees. But in the year 2050, which is not so far away, it is expected that this ratio will be 1,6 employees to one pensioner, which would make the current pension system in Europe, which is mainly based on the solidarity of generations, unsustainable.

According to Eurostat surveys, 70% of EU citizens see demographic challenges as a long-term risk for the European economy. While over 40 percent see the aging of the population as an urgent challenge. The current trend in Europe will aggravate the labor shortage problem, increase the pressure on the public budget and negatively affect investments and productivity.

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Demographic problems are a challenge that experts must deal with, while politicians must act without abusing this problem for short-term political battles, as it is a challenge that requires long-term measures.

Europe has a short-term solution, however unpopular it may be. The EU countries compensate for the aging of the population, which is necessarily reflected in the reduction of the number of residents capable of work, with the import of labor. In recent years, Kosovo, however small, has made a great contribution to EU countries by exporting workforce. And Kosovo has been for the EU an example of how to ensure a controlled immigration of the workforce in the EU.

At first, the departure of young people from a country can have positive effects that can be used in the presentation of statistical data. Their removal lowers the level of unemployment, helps to reduce obligations for social assistance, while they, through remittances, increase local income and help consumption by increasing the economy. The most drastic example of this is Croatia.

Croatia today has one of the highest levels of economic growth in Europe. And it has the lowest unemployment rate in history, which is below the European Union average. Today Croatia has only 6 percent unemployed, while ten years ago it was 17 percent. But this growth of Croatia is considered by experts as "growth beyond capacity", since the main factors of this "economic success" are external. Croatia's main income comes from tourism (ie from the arrival of foreigners), from diaspora remittances (money coming from abroad) and from large EU funds through the cohesion policy and the plan for growth and recovery. From these funds, Croatia has benefited for seven years more than 12.5 billion euros without having to return them. Even the decrease in unemployment is the result of the departure of young people who have gone to the more developed countries of the EU. This "economic miracle" in Croatia has resulted in the increase of salaries to the average level of 1300 euros, which is today. Which is very close to the EU average.

But Croatia meanwhile has suffered a severe demographic blow. Half a million inhabitants have been lost for ten years. When the accession negotiations started, Croatia had 4.4 million inhabitants, while today it has only 3.8 million. In this period Ireland, for example, has grown from 4.4 million in 2004 to 5.5 million inhabitants. So Ireland, which had approximately the same number of inhabitants as Croatia 20 years ago, today has 1.7 million more inhabitants. Ireland meanwhile today, after Luxembourg, is the richest country in Europe in terms of Gross Domestic Product per capita. This is the result of positive migration in Ireland, and negative migration in Croatia. Ireland can also be a positive example, because the Irish are probably, next to the Jews, the nation historically most affected by emigration. It is estimated that there are 10 times as many Irish people (of descent) outside Ireland as there are in Ireland. So somewhere around 55 million people of Irish descent live outside their mother country, mostly in the United States of America. Ireland is now the preferred destination for immigrants. 

And it was Ireland that was the first destination for young people from Croatia, who left their country after this country joined the EU.

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But it is a mistake to blame EU membership for this. This membership has only made leaving more equal and humane, using the right of freedom of movement of workers in the single market. As if it is a mistake to blame visa liberalization in Kosovo for the great departure of young people. People left Croatia even before the country's membership in the EU, while they left Kosovo even before visas were lifted. Croatia has also been a favorite destination of Kosovars, where it is assumed that in the last three years, about 20.000 Kosovars have gone with a work permit. And they have been welcome, because they have filled the jobs that were left empty after the mass departure of the Croats. There are no longer even Kosovars willing and able to go to Croatia, and the workforce in this country comes from countries like the Philippines, Nepal, India and Bangladesh. These are unstoppable trends, because all over the world there is movement of workers to countries where incomes are higher. Hundreds of thousands of Germans and French work in Luxembourg and Switzerland where the incomes are the highest.

But Kosovo must now, with urgency, address the demographic problems that are being seen today and the consequences in the economy, which it will face in the following years.