Between the blessing and curse of Trump's ignorance

Our region is too insignificant to arouse any interest from Trump. In this sense, we are blessed with his ignorance. However, the question remains whether we will be blessed that this time Trump will be surrounded by statesmen who will understand the importance of our region for America. That remains to be seen.

Trump's first presidency has inspired a number of books that have sought to tell the story of the White House under Trump. Among them, journalist Bob Woodward's book "Fear" has remained one of the books that has most beautifully described the motivations and mechanics of Trump's decision-making, as well as the dynamics and balances of power within the White House. In particular, the book has remained relevant to today's time because the entire narrative of the book is organized around its main character and the way in which Trump has shaped his thoughts on key developments such as the economy, the rule of law, Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, etc. Consequently, although times have changed, the lessons of the book still remain entirely applicable because its main character has remained unchanged. As in his first presidency, Trump is surrounded by capable and professional people, but as then, there is nothing that can control Trump's basic impulses, which have not changed in his 78 years of life. 

Trump himself proved this to us again in the first twenty-four hours of his presidency. On his first day, he issued 26 executive orders declaring a state of emergency on the border with Mexico, denying citizenship to people born in the US, pardoning the crimes of about 1,500 people convicted of violating Congress on January 6, 2021, starting negotiations to buy TikTok, withdrawing the US from the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement, designating criminal gangs in Mexico as foreign terrorist organizations, establishing the Department of Government Efficiency, changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, changing the name of Mount Denali to Mount McKinley, suspending US aid to the world for 90 days, etc. etc. 
Although half of these decisions will never be implemented, their issuance has created a real chaos in the American public discourse as no one has had time to discuss any of these decisions, let alone all 26 decisions. And this was exactly Trump’s goal – to create chaos where the public perception will be that Trump is doing something, but no one will have time to discuss exactly what he is doing. This was also clearly seen in Trump’s press conference where even he himself did not understand exactly what he was signing. 

This chaotic way of governing is one of the epicenters of the aforementioned book “Fear.” Journalist Woodward describes episode after episode how the professional staff of the White House – Trump’s advisers and cabinet members – have found it impossible to control Trump’s impulses. One of these episodes most beautifully paints the way the White House functions under Trump. 
South Korea is the United States' closest ally in Asia. It is the first country the United States was willing to fight for after World War II. After the war, the United States and South Korea signed the Mutual Defense Treaty, which paved the way for the deployment of American military capabilities in South Korea with the aim of projecting American power in the Pacific and checking the power of America's two main adversaries: China and North Korea. Today, the United States has about 28,500 soldiers stationed in South Korea, as well as military systems that are essential in the event of any potential attack by North Korea on the United States or in the event of any military conflict with China. For example, these systems are capable of detecting a missile launch from Pyongyang within 7 seconds. Without these systems, the United States would need 15 minutes to make the same detection. This time difference gives the U.S. military critical time to respond to a potential attack and keep American soil safe. This is just one reason why the partnership with South Korea is a key element of American national security and why it has always enjoyed bipartisan support. 

But all this was insignificant noise to Trump. Then, as now, he was obsessed with imposing tariffs on countries that had economic trade deficits with the US, and in this regard he was particularly obsessed with the US trade deficit with South Korea of ​​18 billion dollars, as well as the annual military expenditure of 3.5 billion dollars to maintain US troops there. Against this background, he decided to publicly threaten South Korea with the cancellation of the Free Trade Agreement between the United States of America and South Korea (KORUS). The potential cancellation of the agreement would cause a serious crisis in relations between the two allies and would call into question the American presence in South Korea. 

However, in September 2017, Trump ordered the preparation of a letter to notify the South Korean government of the final cancellation of the agreement. It was at this time that his staff, led by his economic adviser, Gary Cohn, and Defense Secretary, James Mattis, built a coalition within the White House to prevent such a thing. These were still the early days of Trump’s presidency, and the two noticed one thing about the way Trump operates. Trump is not able to consistently focus on one thing and maintain well-informed positions on complex issues. Today he would hold one position, tomorrow another, the day after tomorrow he would forget what he had said a few days ago, and so on. Consequently, they decided that the best strategy to prevent a breakdown in relations with South Korea was to debate, postpone, and delay any final decision on the issue as much as possible in the hope that Trump would eventually give up his obsession with South Korea. They even went so far as to set up a system of monitoring official presidential correspondence within the White House, hiding from Trump anything that might divert his attention toward a breakdown in relations with South Korea. And so, after much debate, Trump finally abandoned the “problem” with South Korea and moved on to other Trumpian obsessions. 

The reason I revisited the book “Fear” and why I stopped at the South Korea episode is because I believe it offers a lesson for us as well. Trump’s ignorance was a blessing for South Korea. Trump had no ideological objections to South Korea policy, but merely transactional ones. Thanks to Trump’s ignorance, relations between the US and South Korea survived. They also survived because Trump was surrounded by statesmen who understood the importance of South Korea to America. Our region is too insignificant to arouse any interest from Trump. In that sense, we are blessed with his ignorance. However, the question remains whether we will be blessed that this time Trump will be surrounded by statesmen who will understand the importance of our region to America. That remains to be seen.