The war of the tribes

Pre-election coalitions can determine the new Government of Kosovo even before the election campaign: four lessons for political parties, in particular for LDK and VV

1.

"Since yesterday, everyone in the city understands that there are elections," a friend with considerable experience in the developments of the past twenty years in Kosovo told me. In fact, "everyone" was wrong. What happened on Monday in Pristina was not the official opening of the election campaign - the country still had a conditionally functional Assembly that day (conditionally, because it was not marked by any major activity, but it was still formally at work). What happened was the beginning of a race that should formalize two developments of the month of September/October: the election campaign and the election day itself. On Monday, AAK and PSD signed the pre-election coalition agreement, which started the coalition race, which could determine the winner of the elections in the coming weeks, even before the campaign was held, let alone before the votes were cast.

Unlike other countries, Kosovo, with a strange interpretation of its own Constitutional Court, is the country where the mandate for the formation of the Government is not given to the party, parties or coalition of parties that after the elections and with the constitution of the Parliament can prove the achievement of the ruling majority, but of the pre-election parties or coalitions that achieve the largest relative number of votes.

So, since Monday, "everyone in the city" does not understand that there are elections, but that there are efforts to create political alliances (coalitions, joint lists - whatever they are called) that must convince the electorate that they have the dominant power. So, the cumulative (summary) numbers that can be created by their coalition are greater than the cumulative numbers of other parties and therefore guarantee for obtaining the mandate.

And taking the mandate, in contrast to democratic systems where efforts must be made to create a ruling majority, in the Kosovar system means the imposed taking of the majority. This is due to the fact that the Constitution of the country obliges the Government to have Serbian ministers and members of other minorities, therefore, it obliges the minorities and the "winner" of the elections to form the Government.

2.

At the moment when AAK and PSD signed the pre-election coalition, they did what characterizes social beings since their prehuman evolution: they rallied for existential war. So, just as animals (including the wisest animal, man) create groups and identities (lavas, tribes, nations) as instruments of self-defense, that is, existence, so these two political parties signed the agreement to be a "tribe" and that in the war the next with the other "tribes" to show that they have superior strength.

This is a primal instinctive reaction and is understandable without going too deep, but just looking at recent polls. They show that four Albanian parties (VV, LDK, AAK and PDK) have rallied, some a little higher and some a little lower, but with a difference that is always in the margin of error, at the number of 20 percent of support. The moment any of these parties signs a coalition agreement, it creates an advantage over other parties. The game is simple and has been known since the time when our man began to descend from the mountains to the plain: the land of the plain is occupied by the one who has the most men, or as it is known in today's political vocabulary, "the man". And vice versa, the one who does not create a numerical superiority (which remains with less "muscle") is handicapped from the beginning.

The first order, as of Monday, is that the political parties that compete are only guaranteed to stay in the opposition. Whoever wants power must join the coalition. Power will be won by the coalition that is created with the most numbers ("men"), measured by the mood of the last polls.

3.

The second order is that, since the numbers are important (how many "men" you have), it is not so important what the political "tribe" says. AAK and PSD did not sign a program of argued political principles; signed an agreement in which they told each other how the "males" will be distributed among the positions. He signs the agreement on how the distribution of the two parties will be done in the electoral list, therefore also in power if he is won (and here the term "men" is only for color, because the electoral lists must also include women).

At the time of signing, they did not show what binds them, except the existential struggle for power. They did not have an identity confession; they did not show why this particular partner is the right one to expand the "tribe", even more so when one partner until yesterday considered the other as a criminal organization, something that would be completely unacceptable for the identity of one party.

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4.

And the third order is that the election campaign is not so important. In ten days of the election campaign, coalitions and parties will not have much space to change the opinions of voters. With the system that Kosovo has, the most important thing in the election campaign is the proof that you have enough "muscle", and the reinforcement of this proof. The coalition for which the cumulative numbers of the polls show that it leads on the night of the submission of electoral lists to the CEC, has the advantage not only of numbers, but also of the perception that it will be the winner, a magnet for the undecided voter.

Consequently, elections will be largely determined by simple messages before the election campaign begins. According to the AAK-PSD model, the simple message is this:

"We have the numbers and we will govern cleanly, because PDK is not with us." This message can be generalized quite simply, for all coalitions:

"We have the numbers and we will govern cleanly, because there is no other tribe with us."

5.

Here comes the fourth order, the difference between the new Government and the new governance.

The exclusion of a tribe (for example in this case PDK) is a great help in the fight for purity in power, but it does not mean a change of government. AAK has demonstrated an impressive capacity for misuse of public money and feudal division of the corrupt and nepotistic kulak, so that even the exclusion of an organization like PDK, which also deals with the activities of a political party, does not guarantee a change in the essence of governance. The essence of governance in Kosovo is what is called extractive in political science: that is, political "tribes" are in power, which derive benefits for themselves. To make a change, a new government is needed, which in political science is called inclusive, that is, which deals with the interests of all citizens, regardless of the tribe - be it family, regional or political.

And, this order rests heavily on the shoulders of LDK and VV. During a period of several months, these two political subjects have given signals of rapprochement, to the point of even talking about the possibility of an electoral list. Since Monday, if the four lessons given by AAK-PSD are applied, their position is even clearer. Both subjects already have the first lesson clear that if they go out alone they will remain in the opposition. Both subjects should also be clear by now that they will not convince anyone during the election campaign with in-depth social or economic analyses. In fact, they will convince him, paradoxically, with the second lesson, and that is that more than the narrative that unites these two subjects is the fact that they are uniting for action for a purpose, that is, that they are a "tribe".

Here comes the challenge and at the same time the advantage of these two subjects. In both, an intellectual debate (doctrinal, political or otherwise, but a debate) takes place on governance in Kosovo. Consequently, the challenge lies in the fact that there cannot be a union of the AAK-PSD nature between them ("we make a joint list, then we explain how we will govern). And here is the advantage: having an intellectual narrative on the nature of governance, perhaps they can find a common narrative, that of changing the nature of governance in Kosovo and the political and legal instruments that are necessary for this. Then maybe they can prove that they are all up for change.