Continuity of Germany in the EU and the Balkans after Merkel

A continuity in German policy is also expected in the approach to the Western Balkans. This can be good, because stability will be the main interest. But it cannot be expected that Germany will be more active in the search for solutions to the problems, of which the relations between Kosovo and Serbia and the electoral reforms in Bosnia-Herzegovina are key

For the first time in more than 50 years, Germany will have a government with more than two parties. Unless, once again, the two biggest parties decide that for the sake of stability and due to the lack of alternatives, they go together in the big coalition. But this time it doesn't seem possible. So there are only two real possibilities. The traffic light coalition where the Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens would be. The second option, the Christian Democrats, the Liberals and the Greens. So, it is almost certain that the next government will be the Liberals and the Greens. These two parties have recorded the largest increase in votes in the elections compared to four years ago. And they have a big difference in their policies. So, we will have heavy negotiations to create the coalition, because in Germany they are not created based on the division of seats and ministerial posts, but more based on the convergence of programs and priorities.

A German analyst on TV called the election result "the dutchization of German politics". With this he thought of the fact that they can no longer decide only two parties, that are so big that they can only choose a small partner and form the government. In the Netherlands, they already have a tradition of forming governments with three, four or five parties. And in the Netherlands the convincing winner is the party that secures a little more than 22 percent of the votes. But multi-party governments have a harder time being decisive. And these are the challenges and the curiosity when thinking about the future of German politics.

How the new German government will be formed after Merkel is being carefully analyzed in the EU, in NATO, but also in the Balkan region.

Germany has always been very active, but always hesitant, cautious and extremely pragmatic. This has also been the course of action of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Germany has thus prevented many erroneous actions. One of them was the idea of ​​the exchange of territories between Kosovo and Serbia, which would actually be more of a division of Kosovo than an exchange of territory. But German reluctance also had consequences. For example, in the EU and NATO, Germany has ensured that countries such as Ukraine or Georgia are not given any hope of becoming members one day. This has encouraged Russia to attack these countries. Germany, whenever something is decided in the EU and NATO, has asked the question "how will this be seen by Russia". Although it has often criticized Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Germany has had no problem cooperating with him.

What can be expected regarding Germany's role in the EU is continuity. All three parties, or four if we do not exclude the CDU from the possibility of entering the government, are pro-EU. Neither questions the EU. There are few differences in terms of ambitions for the preservation of the environment, about debt collectivization at the level of the EU or the eurozone. But in all matters of principle about the future of the EU and the values ​​on which it was founded, there is no difference.

On the other hand, all these German national parties have a leading role in political groups at the EU level. Neither of them questions Germany's financial contribution to the EU's common budget, which is the largest. Only the Netherlands per capita gives more to the EU than Germany. Because I know that this is also the German interest. Germany and its industry also benefit from the economic development of other EU countries. Neither of these parties even questions the cooperation with France to maintain what is known as the "engine of the EU". There are some differences regarding the relations with the United States of America, but not big and not to the extent that the alliance with this country is broken. And it is good that all these parties have ruled out the possibility of a coalition with the extreme right, more precisely the Alternative for Germany. Although Social Democrat leader Sholz has not ruled out a coalition with the far left, they won so few votes that they won't help the SPD even if it reaches a deal with the Liberals, and the Greens don't need it at all. It would only cause a problem because there, as well as in the extreme right, there are pro-Russian and anti-American elements.

also Arberi 17 May 2025 Weber: New German government must make strategic turn in Kosovo-Serbia dialogue

A continuity in German policy is also expected in the approach to the Western Balkans. This can be good, because stability will be the main interest. But it cannot be expected that Germany will be more active in the search for solutions to problems, of which relations between Kosovo and Serbia and electoral reforms in Bosnia-Herzegovina are key.

Whoever is in charge of the German Government will also support EU expansion, but will not do much to make that expansion happen. In these points, he will also act on the political legacy left by Angela Merkel. It will not allow the EU to be broken, it will work to overcome the crises, to maintain the unity of the EU as much as possible. And this is also good news for Europe from the German elections.