The San Marino national football team is last in the qualifying group for the 2026 World Cup. San Marino is unlikely to qualify for the World Cup through regular qualifying. It is even unlikely to qualify for the playoffs, which is ensured by second place in the group.
It seems unbelievable, but the playoffs are possible for San Marino, thanks to a different scenario. San Marino plays its last match of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers in Bucharest against Romania, on November 18.
In Group H, Austria is first with 15 points. Bosnia-Herzegovina has 13 points in second place, while Romania is third with 10 points. Cyprus follows with eight points and San Marino has no points.
The second-placed team in the group qualifies for the play-offs, as do all other second-placed teams. However, the four highest-ranked teams, the winners of the Nations League groups, also advance to the play-offs.
Since Romania is the group winner in the Nations League and Bosnia and Herzegovina is not, it is in San Marino's interest for Romania to finish second in the World Cup qualifying group. This way, Romania would not occupy one of the places that belong to the group winners in the Nations League and consequently San Marino's chances of appearing in the play-offs would increase.
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So San Marino needs to lose to Romania and hope that they finish higher than Bosnia-Herzegovina. But for San Marino to make the playoffs, they need at least eight of the other 12 group winners in the Nations League to be in the top two positions in their regular qualifying groups.
It seems a bizarre scenario, but it is possible. Of course, San Marino would be a complete outsider in the World Cup qualification playoff. But it would be an important achievement for this team, which has lost all seven matches in the regular qualifying rounds so far.
In the Nations League, San Marino won the group in League D, which also included Gibraltar and Liechtenstein.
In Group H on November 15th are the matches Cyprus – Austria and Bosnia and Herzegovina – Romania. Meanwhile, on November 18th are the matches Austria – Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania – San Marino.
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If the race remains open for the final round, then San Marino is better off losing by as many goals as possible.
