Heat deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century, with numbers rising disproportionately in southern European countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain, a study says.
Cold kills more people in Europe than heat, and some say climate change will reduce those deaths. But a study published in the journal "Lancet Public Health" has found that the number of deaths may increase especially in older people and more vulnerable to dangerous temperatures.
If the world reaches a catastrophic temperature of 3 or 4 Celsius, researchers have said that the increase in deaths from heat will exceed that from cold.
Researchers have pointed out that the results suggest that climate change could pose "unprecedented challenges" to public health systems, particularly during heat waves, The Guardian reported.
"Many more heat-related deaths are expected to occur during warming and aging populations, while cold-related deaths are expected to decline slightly," said David Garcia-Leon of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre.
Heat could kill 129,000 people a year if temperatures rise up to 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Today, there are 44,000 heat-related deaths in Europe. But the number of annual deaths from cold and heat in Europe could rise from 407,000 people today to 450,000 in 2100 even if world leaders reach their goal of keeping the average temperature at 1.5.
Madeleine Thomson, director of the association for health research "Wellcome", has said that the tripling of direct deaths from the heat in Europe is not all that will happen. According to her, extreme heat can lead to miscarriages and deterioration of mental health.
Researchers took data from 854 cities to calculate deaths from hot and cold temperatures in Europe. They found that the heat will kill more people in all parts of Europe, but that southern countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, as well as parts of France, will bear the heaviest burden.
They predicted that the number of deaths from high temperatures would increase by 13.5% if the planet warmed by 3 degrees Celsius – leading to 55,000 more deaths. Most of those who die will be older than 85.
