The rise in fuel prices has shaken the world economy. But some analysts say the worst is yet to come, as the war in Iran has been going on for more than a month.
As he wrote NBC News, the concern is that beyond the immediate, widespread price hike as a result of the rise in fuel prices, the war could develop in different waves and that its impact will leave few economies untouched.
“We haven’t seen the full impact of this yet,” said Samantha Gross, director of energy security and climate at the Brookings Institution. “I think markets are underestimating the impact of the war so far. They seem to be expecting this war to end quickly, and we can go back to the world we were in. And I don’t think either of those ideas is true.”
The first worrying signs are already present. The level of global oil prices last week reached 2022 levels, following the war in Ukraine.
As long as the war in Iran lasts, so will the uncertainty around prices, according to experts. Current prices are not the peak.
"It is clear to me that if this crisis lasts for more than three or four months, it will become a systemic problem for the world," Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive of oil giant Total, said at a global energy conference in Houston this month, according to Bloomberg News.
The key reason for the increase in fuel prices is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which is used as a transit for 20 percent of global oil exports.
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"The rise in the cost of fuels will lead to increased input, transportation and production costs, at a time when demand remains fragile," said an analysis by credit rating agency Moody's last week.
Analysts have also spoken of dark scenarios in which the price of oil will increase significantly beyond today's level.
"Even if the war ended tomorrow, the disrupted supply chain will last for a long time, given the damage we've seen to the energy infrastructure, which needs to be repaired," said Andy Lipow, president of consultancy Lipow Oil Associates.
