Two years ago, Moscow highlighted the US-German conflict over the "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline as a major test of transatlantic power.
Russia had invested heavily in the 1200-kilometer underwater pipeline linking it to Germany and wanted to increase global sales and strengthen its economic leverage over Europe and its energy-hungry heavy industries. Germany, the main consumer, was on the mark from the start. Not even Washington.
The United States did not want the new, high-capacity submarine supply to replace the old land lines that transit Ukraine, providing vital revenue for the increasingly Western-leaning leadership in Kiev.
Russia reasoned that if Washington blocked Nord Stream 2, which it eventually did, then it would show that European power no longer flows through Berlin, but in fact through the White House.
After two years, with the retrospective reading of that post-Angela Merkel transatlantic dynamic, and especially after Russian President Vladimir Putin's failed invasion of Ukraine, this issue has become one of the most pressing political aspects of concern to the Kremlin.
also American anger at BerlinA rare moment of iron leadership
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's refusal, in his own words, to "push" alone for sending tanks to Ukraine - instead of standing up and asking US President Joe Biden to join in in entrepreneurship, risking Putin's wrath - has shown that the transatlantic power dynamic has changed.
Europe has been slow to respond to the deep rifts in American politics and the uncertainty that another Trump-style presidency could inflict on its allies. Decades of reasonably unwavering faith, if not outright faith, in the US have been replaced by stubborn European pragmatism – and Germany is flying the flag.
Former Chancellor Merkel was Europe's moral compass. Scholz has suddenly grasped the weight of his often stop/go/wait traffic light-style ruling coalition and won thunderous applause in Germany's Bundestag on Wednesday as he signaled a rare moment of steely leadership.
At their summit in March last year, NATO leaders agreed to equip, arm and train Ukraine to NATO standards. It would not be a member, but the message to Moscow was clear: in the coming years, Ukraine would look and fight like it was in NATO.
Ukraine's ongoing metamorphosis from legacy Soviet force to NATO clone is not just about the mechanics or even the diplomacy of accepting tanks, artillery, air defenses and artillery, but about the behavior of nearly a billion people of NATO member countries together with their politicians. Scholzi highlighted this in Parliament on Wednesday.
"Trust us", he said, "we will not put you in danger". He explained how his government had already dealt with Russia's aggression and how fears of a cold winter and economic collapse did not materialize. "The government faced the crisis," he said, adding: "We are in a much better position."
Applause at every turn of his carefully crafted speech spoke as loudly as his words. In short, Scholz did well for Germany, taking with him the typical German populace who opposed the war and projecting their power. At the same time, deeply divided over how much they should help Ukraine kill Russians and potentially anger the Kremlin.
Is Putin being invited to escalate?
But if in Europe Scholzi seems to have fought some traces of influence over America in the war in Ukraine, in Moscow they do not believe that his new power changes much.
Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, says that in Moscow "most people believe that Biden calls the shots."
Indeed, instead of Germany having more leverage, he says, "American leadership looks stronger than ever."
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However, Russian diplomats have made their hostility to the West very clear in the public arena on both sides of the Atlantic.
Russia's ambassador to Germany said Berlin's move to send tanks was "extremely dangerous" and accused Scholz of refusing to "accept its (Germany's) historic responsibility towards our people for the terrible crimes of Nazism". Meanwhile, his counterpart in Washington accused the White House of "open provocation" and Biden of aiming for the "strategic defeat" of Russia.
Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and deputy chairman of its National Security Council, has said that Russia would never allow itself to be defeated and would use nuclear weapons if threatened.
Surprisingly, closer to the Kremlin the statements are less bellicose, signaling that Putin may be inviting nuclear escalation.
Responding to Biden and Scholz's decision on the tanks, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it adds "tension to the continent, but cannot prevent Russia from achieving our goals."
Berlin wants the reins in its own hands
CNN received mixed messages from several sources in Moscow after Biden and Scholz's announcements about the tanks. Some said that Russia would win regardless of these decisions, and that it joined the US and Germany as losers, but a significant number were worried about the war, shocked by the high death toll and frustrated that Putin ignored the concerns of theirs.
How aware Scholz is of Putin's declining popularity or whether he believes it matters at this point is unclear, but his actions now, by sending tanks, could help ease Putin's iron grip on power.
By delaying to acknowledge Russia's threat, reorient Germany, revive its military and increase arms supplies to Ukraine, the pragmatist Scholz has now signaled that Germany is deep in the game - and, at really, he wants the reins in his own hands. He said Germany would "coordinate" supplies of the Leopard 2 from allies in Ukraine, a power delegated to him by German legislation that prevents any buyer of German military equipment from transferring it to a third country.
With Scholz taking the diplomatic helm, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be limited in his territorial ambitions to restore the entirety of Ukraine's sovereignty, including Crimea, ahead of peace talks with Putin. The German chancellor has been at the head of friendly leaders who want a quick end to the war and the restoration of economic stability in Europe.
Longer debates about future military moves for Ukraine could follow and are likely to signal to Zelensky that arms supplies will be more in a German chain and less unilaterally led by Washington.
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This change in power dynamics may not change the way the war is fought, but it may affect the contours of a final settlement and shape a lasting peace when it comes.
Prepared by: Rexhep Maloku
