The Baltic States' path to energy independence

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and other dignitaries are expected to attend a ceremony on Sunday, while a specially designed 9-meter-tall clock in Vilnius city center will count down the final seconds of the Baltic states' electricity grid being connected to Russia.

Nearly three and a half decades after gaining independence from the Soviet Union, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will this weekend end their energy grid connections with neighboring Russia and Belarus and turn to their European Union allies on the issue.

Cutting off energy links with oil- and gas-rich Russia has geopolitical and symbolic significance. The decision was accelerated after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine three years ago, damaging Moscow's relations with the European Union.

"This is a physical break from the last remaining element of our dependence on the Russian and Belarusian energy system," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told The Associated Press in a recent interview.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other dignitaries are expected to attend a ceremony on Sunday, while a specially designed 9-meter-tall clock in Vilnius city center will count down the final seconds of the Baltic states' energy grid connection to Russia.  

Cold reports since the fall of the Soviet Union

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The Baltic countries, which are all NATO members, have had frosty relations with Russia since declaring independence from the Soviet Union in 1990, and relations deteriorated further after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Sixteen power lines connecting the three Baltic states to Russia and Belarus were disconnected over the years as a new network was built connecting them to the rest of the EU, including undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.

On Saturday, all remaining transmission system lines between them and Russia, Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad will be shut down one by one.

Then, for 24 hours, the Baltic Power System will operate alone in an “island operation mode.” The next day, the power system will join the continental and Nordic European grids through several connections with Finland, Sweden, and Poland.

The Kaliningrad region, which has no land connection to mainland Russia, already relies on its own energy production, according to Litgrid, Lithuania's electricity transmission system operator.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Baltic countries had been informed in advance of the disconnection plan and that the Russian energy sector had taken preparatory steps to ensure its smooth operation.

“These plans were announced a long time ago and they required certain actions by our and the power grid companies,” Peskov told reporters. “We have taken all necessary measures to ensure the reliable and uninterrupted operation of our unified energy system.”

Risks for trouble

The three Baltic states, which together share a 1.633-kilometer-long border with Russia and Belarus, officially informed Moscow and Minsk of the decoupling plan in July. Their national transmission system operators have raised 1.2 billion euros from the EU and other support to help the countries synchronize with the Continental European Synchronous Zone.

"Lithuania has done a lot in the last 30 years to break away, to become independent," Nauseda said. "Three years ago we stopped buying any kind of energy resources from Russia. It was our response to the war in Ukraine."

Despite the advance notice, the Baltic countries expect possible retaliation from their former Soviet partners.

"The risk of cyberattacks remains substantial," Litgrid said last week, adding that continued vigilance, cooperation, defensive steps and "robust" cybersecurity measures are needed to effectively mitigate potential threats.

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa warned on Wednesday of possible provocations, but said Latvia is well prepared and authorities, including the armed forces and national guard, are increasing their vigilance and security measures.

"It is clear that there is a risk, we understand it very well. But the risks have been identified and there is an emergency plan in case these risks materialize," said Siliņa.

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After the announcement of the disconnection plans, propaganda campaigns appeared on social media as well as through flyers on the streets of cities where fake news talked about power outages, as well as high bills for consumers.

“We heard those rumors, but we are used to such things now,” said Jolanta Karavaitienė, a retired former teacher who lives in Vilnius. “Of course we should disassociate ourselves from them. Given the geopolitical situation, I see no reason for us to be part of the Russian network.”

However, some countries in the region have taken precautions.

Estonia's public broadcaster, ERR, has reported a surge in generator sales. Home appliance chain Bauhof sold dozens more generators last month compared to January a year earlier, and rival Ehituse ABC had to limit its purchases, according to the report.

Secession from Russia

The Baltic countries have been making strides towards energy independence for many decades.

In 2003, before joining the EU, Lithuania decided to close the Soviet-built Ignalina nuclear power plant in response to concerns in Brussels about its safety. It was shut down in 2009.

Lithuania built an offshore oil terminal in the Baltic Sea in 1999. Seven years later it became the country's sole crude oil import point after Russia's surprise move to halt oil supplies to Lithuania through Russia's vast Druzhba pipeline network.

Rokas Masiulis, executive director of Litgrid, said Lithuania has “suffered greatly” due to Russian actions in the past, such as cutting off oil supplies and increasing gas prices on which his country once depended.

He said that Lithuania today has “much more than we need” in terms of electricity capacity, both from fossil fuels, but also from solar and wind. “So we are safe,” he said.

Breaking with Russia "is not bad for them or for us," Masiulis said.

"We were somehow interconnected and interdependent. Now we're just going to go our separate ways," he said.

The three Baltic countries have rebuilt power lines and have begun implementing a major construction plan to disconnect their networks from Russia and route them to the West, the executive director of Litgrid added, calling it a technological achievement.

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"Russia's actions, being aggressive and pushing its neighbors away, have really helped us," Masiulis said. "Maybe we suffered a little bit with the price of oil, with the price of gas, but we were forced to act. So we built alternative routes."

"We're in a much better position now than we were before," he added. "So maybe they wanted us to do bad, but in the end it all worked out very well for us."