Three factors make the situation more dangerous than in 2020
The ceasefire in Tigray, the northern region of Ethiopia where hundreds of thousands of people have been killed in a brutal civil war between 2020 and 2022, was an example of peace achievements by the United States and allies during Biden's term. In November 2022, Western and African officials, fearing that separatist aspirations in Tigray could lead to the division of Africa's second-largest state, forced the Ethiopian government and the region's authorities to lay down their arms.
Three years later, that agreement is on the verge of collapse. On November 7, authorities in Tigray accused Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of “blatantly violating” the ceasefire by launching drone attacks on Tigrayan targets. This was followed by clashes between Tigray forces and government-affiliated militias in the Afar region. Prime Minister Abiy accused the Tigrayan government of arming itself and stopped the flow of federal funds to the region.
Speaking in parliament on October 28, Abiy insisted that his government does not want war with anyone. But if that happens, he said the outcome would be dire. “No one can stop us.”
The Ethiopian Chief of Staff was even more direct. “Ethiopia will not have peace until the TPLF leaves,” he said.
In the north, Tigrayan generals are preparing for war. Residents of Mekelle, the regional capital, are reportedly waiting in long lines at banks and shops to withdraw money and get supplies.
2020
The whole event is reminiscent of the war before 2020. At the time, the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated Ethiopian politics for three decades before Abiy took office in 2018, were bracing for conflict. However, three factors make the situation more dangerous now, according to The Economist.
The first is the division of leadership in Tigray. In March, a faction of the TPLF, backed by the armed forces, violently removed the interim president of Tigray and installed a general in his place. This prompted a group of disgruntled soldiers to flee to Afar, where they formed a militia with Ethiopian government support. They have recently clashed with former comrades in Tigray.
Another factor is the deterioration of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, a former province of Ethiopia that seceded in 1993. In 2020, Eritrea sent thousands of troops to fight alongside the Ethiopian army in Tigray. But relations deteriorated after Abiy's attempts to reconcile with the TPLF, longtime enemies of Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki, in 2022.
Moreover, Abiy’s ambitions to take control of at least one of Eritrea’s Red Sea ports have further fueled the situation. In 2023, he declared that for Ethiopia, a country of 130 million people, direct access to the sea is an “existential” issue. He has also questioned the legitimacy of Eritrea’s independence. Although the prime minister claims that he would prefer a diplomatic solution, the government has made no secret of its preparations for war. On October 21, Ethiopian officials and military officers visited the town of Bure, near the Eritrean border and 70 kilometers from the port of Assab.
Drone base
Satellite images have suggested that a new drone base has recently been expanded. The potential for war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has upended relations and alliances across the Horn of Africa.
If war breaks out, Tigray would become a battlefield. That is why TPLF officials, who see Abiy as the main threat, have begun to approach Isaias, despite the numerous atrocities committed by Eritrean forces during the recent war.
Tigray and Eritrean commanders are believed to have been in contact for more than a year. During a recent visit to a town in the Tigray region, The Economist saw Eritrean forces moving freely with Tigray militias. In a full-scale war, Eritrean forces are expected to come to the aid of the Tigray ones.
Other alliances have also been shaken. In the last war, militias from the Amhara region bordering Tigray fought alongside Ethiopia and Eritrea against the TPLF. But since 2023, these forces, known as Fano, have rebelled against Abiy. In a surprise move last September, Fano defeated government forces in Amhara.
The movement has shocked Addis Ababa (the capital of Ethiopia), according to a former Ethiopian official. They are believed to have had the help of Eritrea and the TPLF. Commanders from Tigray and Amhara, along with Eritrean and Oromia rebels, recently met in Sudan to discuss joint military plans.
The third factor that makes the situation more tense in Tigray is the civil war in neighboring Sudan, where both Tigrayans and Eritreans are considered important allies of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Eritrea trains units of this army and allied groups. Sudanese aircraft have already been seen in the Eritrean capital for training. Earlier this year, thousands of Tigrayans fought alongside the SAF in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan. If war breaks out between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Isaias and the TPLF can count on partial support from the SAF.