Predicting the outcome of the highly secretive papal race is nearly impossible as cardinals' positions change with each vote and some try to game the system to influence the chances of their preferred — or even less preferred — candidates. In the 2013 conclave, some predicted that Jorge Mario Bergoglio would be elected pope.
Following the death of Pope Francis, speculation has focused on these names, according to "The Guardian":
Pietro Parolin, 70 years old from Italy:
Parolin was close to Francis. He has been the Vatican's secretary of state since 2013, and has played a key role in diplomatic affairs. He is also seen as a stable figure in diplomacy.
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67 years old from the Philippines
Tagle, who could become the first Asian pope, has been vocal about the Catholic Church's tough stance on gays and divorced couples, but has opposed abortion rights in the Philippines.
Peter Turkson, 76 years old from Ghana
Turkson could become the first black pope in centuries. He has been vocal in the fight against the climate crisis and economic inequality.
Peter Erdo, 72 years old from Hungary
Erdoğan has been a strong advocate of Catholic discourses and doctrine and would be considered a major change from Francis's approach so far.
Matteo Zuppi, 69 years old from Italy
Appointed a cardinal by Francis in 2019, Zuppi is seen as a possible successor to the late pope's policies. He was also the pope's envoy to Ukraine.
Jose Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59 years old from Portugal
This is one of the youngest potential candidates. Age may be an obstacle to taking office. He has received support due to his more tolerant approach to same-sex relationships.
Mario Grech, 68 years old from Malta
Grech is considered more traditional, but began to support more progressive views when Francis was elected in 2013.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60 years old from Italy
Since 2020, Pizzaballa has been the Latin Patriarch for Jerusalem. Following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, he offered himself as a hostage to secure the release of children being held by Hamas.
Robert Sarah, 79 years old from Guinea
Sarah is a traditionalist cardinal who was seen as a challenger to Francis' power. He has called "gender ideology" a threat to society.
