The heightened tensions, which have prompted the highest levels of alarm among US personnel in Iraq, could make it difficult for the incoming Biden administration to focus the military more aggressively against Russia and China.
Washington, January 5 (AP) – Joe Biden faces the problem of Iran. And the problem is that the situation is getting more complicated day by day.
Due to Iran's provocative moves and less coherent actions by the outgoing Trump administration, the US president-elect is facing an increasingly uncertain situation when it comes to Iran, a decades-old curse for America that has become the target of blame for most of the instability in the Middle East.
Just last week, President Donald Trump's team sent B-52 bombers to the Persian Gulf in response to Iranian plans for an attack and overturned the decision to return the USS Nimitz, the only US warship to the region.
On Monday, Iran not only announced that it has resumed uranium enrichment in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal, but also hijacked a South Korean oil tanker and its crew. This head-scratching combination of actions comes just two weeks before the president-elect is inaugurated, threatening to delay the implementation of Biden's pledge to return to the deal from which Trump withdrew the US in 2018.
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But what are the developments that should be analyzed more fundamentally, the question is raised in the analysis of the American news agency, AP.
Is there a risk of escalating tensions?
The concerns are alarming because there have been several weeks since Iran is only contributing to the rise of tensions, especially at this time when the third anniversary of the assassination by the US of the Iranian general in Iraq was marked. The anniversary only escalated tensions, raising fears among senior US officials of a retaliatory attack by Iran, or by allied militias in Iraq, who had previously fired missiles at US bases in the country.
Although the announcement of uranium enrichment, nor the hostage taking of the South Korean ship, are not directly related to the killing of General Soleimani, the two moves raised tensions in the region, which has long become an unpredictable part of the world.
Is there expected to be a military clash?
Some of the concern is also related to the fear that a single wrong move – or an unintentional provocation – has the potential to trigger war.
There is no sign that the US is planning an attack against Iran, although Trump has said he would oppose any attack by Iran or its militias in Iraq that would result in the death of a single American. The US military has always owned a wide range of weapons and troops in the Middle East that could be deployed in the event of an outbreak of hostilities. But Trump himself has ruled out the possibility of inciting any war in the Middle East.
The scenario that worries US officials is an eventual attack by Iran, either inside Iraq or elsewhere in the Gulf region, that would prompt retaliation by Trump, leading to a wider war in the region. That's part of why the U.S. has kept a warship in the region, making it a near-permanent base since May 2019, when the White House first announced it feared Iran was planning attacks against U.S. personnel in region.
The return of the American warship to the Gulf?
The unusual comings and goings of the Nimitz battleship by Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller appear to have undermined US Central Command's efforts to convince him that Iran would not pay any price in the event of an attack against US forces.
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The large warship, with an additional attack and military air strike support, was effectively leaving the region by the time it received word that it was to return from where it had come.
The departure of the "Nimitz" to the USA had been discussed for weeks, because it was a big mission and it was supposed to return to American shores at the end of 2020. But the tour was postponed for several weeks in order to supporting the withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan, Somalia and Iraq. But with tensions rising with Iran in the mid-December, Central Command wanted to keep the warship nearby. Instead, Miller announced that he had ordered her return to American shores. Three days later, he reversed his words and said the warship would remain.
The shifting decisions on the Nimitz caught some Defense Department officials by surprise, suggesting that the decision may have been made at the White House rather than the result of any new arguments from senior US Army officials.
Why are B52s flying in the Gulf?
These long-haul bomber flights are not common, but have become routine recently as a show of military prowess. Three B-52 bomber missions have been flown in the region in less than two months, with the last on December 30.
The routine flights from the United States are intended to demonstrate how quickly American bombers can arrive in the region. They can be equipped with nuclear and conventional missiles. Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, the top US commander in the Middle East, made the message clear this week, saying: "We are not seeking conflict, but no one should underestimate our ability to protect our forces or to to act decisively in response to an attack".
What does this mean for Biden?
Biden's transition team has declined to comment in detail on the latest developments and what they portend for their plans. But Biden and his top national security advisers have talked about their Iran policy in broad strokes. At the top of the list is the approach of Iran in order to cooperate in accordance with the agreement on the atomic program and that the pact will then be expanded, with which the issue of non-nuclear behaviors that was not included in the initial agreement will be regulated.
However, Iran has made it known that it will respect the agreement only if the US returns to the deal and withdraws the sanctions that Trump has imposed over the past two years. At the same time, Biden's advisers have said that Iran cannot be rewarded with sanctions relief if it does not respect the agreement.
Iran's recent actions, coupled with the Trump administration's move of forces, complicate diplomacy and raise the risk of miscalculations as tensions continue to rise between Iran and its neighbors.
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The heightened tensions, which have prompted the highest levels of alarm among US personnel in Iraq, could make it difficult for the incoming Biden administration to focus the military more aggressively against Russia and China.
Analysis by US news agency, AP
