Ten reasons why both Trump and Harris can win

With just one day left until the election, the race for the White House has seen little change, both nationally and in all-important battleground states.

The polls are so close, within the margin of error, that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris may actually be two or three points better, but just enough to win.

There is a compelling case for why each may have the advantage when it comes to building a coalition of voters in the right seats, and then ensuring that they emerge victorious.

Trump can win because…

1. He is not in power

The economy is the number one issue for voters, and while unemployment is low and the stock market is booming, most Americans say they are struggling with higher prices every day.

Inflation levels not seen since the 1970s in the wake of the pandemic have given Trump the opportunity to ask "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"

In 2024, voters around the world have repeatedly rejected the ruling party, partly because of the high cost of living after Covid. American voters also seem hungry for change.

Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is headed, and two-thirds have a poor economic outlook.

Harris has tried to be the so-called candidate for change, but as vice president she has struggled to distance herself from an unpopular Joe Biden.

2. He seems unaffected by bad news

Despite the aftermath of the January 6, 2021 riots at the US Capitol, a series of indictments and an unprecedented criminal conviction, support for Trump has remained steady throughout the year at 40% or above.

While "Never-Trump" Democrats and conservatives say he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree that Trump is the victim of a political witch hunt.

With the two parties in such opposite directions, he needs to win over a small portion of undecided voters without a definite view of him.

3. His warnings about illegal immigration

Beyond the state of the economy, elections are often decided by an issue that has an emotional impact.

Democrats will be hoping the issue will be abortion, while Trump is betting it's immigration.

After border crossings hit record levels under the Biden presidency, and the influx affected states far from the border, polls say voters trust Trump more on immigration, and that he is doing much better with Latinos than in previous elections.

4. More people don't have a degree than do

Trump's appeal to voters who feel forgotten and left behind has transformed American politics by turning traditional Democratic constituencies such as union workers Republican, and making protecting American industry from tariffs almost the norm.

If he boosts turnout in rural and suburban parts of swing states, it could offset the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans.

5. He is seen as a strong man in an unstable world

Trump's opponents say he undermines America's alliances by cozying up to authoritarian leaders.

The former president sees his unpredictability as a strength, and points out that no major wars started while he was in the White House.

Many Americans are angry, for various reasons, that the US is sending billions of dollars to Ukraine and Israel. They think America is weaker under Biden.

Harris can win because…

1. She is not Trump

Despite Trump's advantages, he remains a deeply polarizing figure.

In 2020, he won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate, but was defeated because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden.

This time, Harris is playing up the fear factor of a Trump comeback. She called him a "fascist" and a threat to democracy, while vowing to move on from "drama and conflict".

A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July showed that four in five Americans thought the country was spiraling out of control. Harris hopes voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, will see her as a candidate for stability.

2. She's also not Biden

Democrats are feeling safe now that Biden dropped out of the race in July. United in their desire to defeat Trump, the party quickly rallied around Harris. With impressive speed she delivered a more forward-looking message that excited the base.

While Republicans have linked him to Biden's more unpopular policies, Harris has used his attacks on Biden's age against Trump.

Polls consistently suggested that voters had real concerns about Biden's suitability for office. Now the race is back, and it's Trump who is vying to become the oldest person to ever win the White House.

3. She has defended women's rights

This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion.

Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly support Harris, and past elections have shown that the issue can drive turnout and have a real impact on the outcome.

This time around, 10 states, including the swing state of Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. That could increase turnout in Harris' favor.

The historic nature of her bid to become the first woman president could also bolster her significant lead among women voters.

4. Her voters are more likely to show up

Groups that Harris is doing better in the polls, such as the college-educated and the elderly, are more likely to vote.

Democrats ultimately perform better with high turnout groups, while Trump has been able to benefit from relatively low turnout groups such as young people and those without college degrees.

Trump, for example, holds a large lead among those who were registered but did not vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.

A major question, then, is whether they will show up this time.

5. She has raised and spent more money 

It's no secret that American elections are expensive, and 2024 is on track to be the most expensive ever.

But when it comes to spending, Harris is on top. She has raised more funds since becoming a candidate in July than Trump has in the entire period since January 2023, according to a recent analysis by the Financial Times, which also noted that her campaign has spent almost twice as much for advertising.

That could play a role in a tight race that will ultimately be decided by voters in swing states currently being bombarded by political ads.