EU's ability to defend against invasion remains in doubt, report says

The EU's ability to respond to a foreign invasion by 2030 remains in question, due to continued dependence on the US and fragmented national defence systems, says a report published by the bloc's official auditor.

The European Court of Auditors (ECA) has said that the EU is much better prepared than before, ahead of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but achieving the defence readiness target by the end of this decade will be difficult.

"Achieving EU defence readiness by 2030 remains a challenge," said Marek Opioła, a member of the ECA, who led the EU defence policy review, published on Thursday.

"There are still major difficulties, such as fragmented national systems or obstacles in the defense industry. We also continue to depend on the United States," he added.

In an interview with the Guardian, he stressed that the EU could "still make great progress" if it significantly increased defense spending and rapidly expanded ammunition production.

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Between 2020 and 2025, EU member states have increased defense spending by 79%, in response to the Russian threat and in a belated attempt to meet NATO military spending targets. 

The EU set a target of achieving defence readiness by 2030 last year after intelligence services warned that Russia could be ready to wage a full-scale war in Europe around that time.

The EU's financial watchdog has said that major difficulties must be overcome to achieve this objective, defined by a senior auditor as "having strategic autonomy" and "the ability to independently support a high-intensity war".

The EU's top auditor said the EU is better prepared compared to 2019, when a similar review was carried out, but warned that fragmented national defence industries and "insufficient cooperation" between EU governments contribute to the risk of duplication of spending or persistent gaps in military capabilities.

A typical example of this dysfunction, although not mentioned in the report, is the decision by France and Germany to abandon a €100 billion project to build a joint fighter jet, after the main companies were unable to resolve disagreements over the direction and control of the project.

The report has highlighted a potential tension between short-term needs on the battlefield and the "Buy European" policy, which aims to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.

According to a study cited by the ECA, between February 2022 and June 2023, 78% of defense equipment purchases by EU governments were sourced from outside the bloc, with the US alone accounting for 63% of them.

The auditor general said that purchases from the US increased after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, "which was understandable, because the EU needed to find capacity that could be made available quickly."