As Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration approaches, governments in Asian states are grappling with potentially existential questions about how Trump will manage U.S. security relationships with friends and rivals — and whether he will stay in side with allies if tested.
For America's friends in Asia, the uncertainty of Donald Trump's return to the White House is coming at an inopportune time.
China has been modernizing its military and nuclear arsenal, while becoming more aggressive in its territorial ambitions over the South China Sea and over Taiwan. North Korea has increased its threatening rhetoric and claims to be developing an illegal nuclear program. Both countries have increased support for Russia during the war in Ukraine.
For decades, the US has supported the security of allies in the region, where it has more troops than any other country in the world outside the US. Tens of thousands of soldiers are stationed at bases in allies such as South Korea and Japan, and in countries with which the US has defense treaties, such as the Philippines and Australia - the US is obligated to help in the event of an attack.
These countries are now preparing for the return of an American leader who leans towards autocrats, and calls himself "America First" for approaches to global obligations.
Many questions about Trump are on the minds of pro-American leaders in Asia, experts on the region say.
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Will Trump demand more defense spending than allies can afford? Will it take extreme steps to withdraw troops when these demands cannot be met? Will the businessman-turned-leader walk away from deals with China's Xi Jinping, North Korea's Kim Jong-Un or Vladimir Putin's Russia that undermine the interests of US allies?
Alternatively, could he perhaps strengthen US alliances and be a stronger adversary to America's enemies?
In the shadow of this uncertainty, leaders from the region have struggled to forge strong ties with the unpredictable Trump, who is known to make foreign policy personal.
Many are skeptical of President-elect Trump's threat to "barb" the world's largest economy through a 10% tariff on all imports and up to 60% tariffs on products from China, moves that could have major economic effects throughout Asia.
But as Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration approaches, governments in Asia are grappling with potentially existential questions about how Trump will manage U.S. security relationships with friends and rivals — and whether he will stay in side with allies if tested.
"Necessary force?"
After World War II, a network of US alliances was established around the world to serve as a strong deterrent against another global war. A major goal was to prevent more countries from becoming nuclear powers by placing them under the umbrella of the US arsenal.
In the eyes of many in Washington and around Asia, these alliances in the Asia-Pacific have only become more critical as a result of cooling relations in the region.
China has increased its security ties with NATO foe Russia and has been accused of supporting the war in Ukraine by buying Russian exports.
Beijing has also increased its threats against Taiwan, saying it will control it by force if necessary.
In the South China Sea, China's coast guard has in recent months attacked Philippine ships, even though it is denied ownership of the strategically critical part of the waterway.
North Korea, meanwhile, has increased threats against South Korea and the US over illegal missile testing. It is also helping Russia's war with ammunition, missiles, and in a major escalation — soldiers, US officials say.
But as Trump enters a more complex and uncomfortable global scene than in his first term eight years ago, Asia experts say his focus appears to be on increasing economic pressure on China rather than security. regional.
"The top priority is on the economic relationship and on the US economic victory over China," said Sam Roggeveen, director of the Program on International Security at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
"Everything leads in the opposite direction," Roggeveen said. "He is certainly interested in a strong military and the defense of the United States ... but not in this idea of America as a necessary force that has a unique global security role."
The incoming leader and his pundits have insisted, questioning whether the US is getting enough in return from alliances and whether American lives and dollars should be lost to fight foreign wars.
Trump shocked European leaders by saying he would encourage Russia to do "whatever it wants" with any NATO member that does not meet NATO's defense spending criteria.
Preparing for Trump 2.0
Weeks before Election Day, Trump turned attention away from Asia, saying in an interview with Bloomberg News that if he were to become president, South Korea would pay $10 billion a year to keep U.S. troops — about 8 times more than Seoul and Washington agreed.
South Korea spends 2% of its gross domestic product on defense, considered by the US to be a minimum of defense spending by allies. In the past decade, the US has also paid 90% of the cost of expanding Camp Humphreys, the largest US base abroad.
But Trump's comments have fueled fears in Seoul that he may seek to renegotiate cost-sharing for US troops, even though a five-year deal was reached earlier this year that will increase Seoul's spending to 5 % more in 8.3. A failed renegotiation – at worst, could result in a decision to reduce the number or withdraw US troops, which are intended to face the threat from the aggressive northern neighbor.
Such a scenario could prompt Seoul to develop its own nuclear capabilities — a first step on a slippery slope that could lead to arms distribution to other middle powers, experts say.
But dealing with Trump has become much more complicated for South Korea. Lawmakers there voted a no-confidence motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol earlier this month after his shock declaration of martial law. The country now faces months of political uncertainty at a time when observers say building a leader-to-leader relationship is key.
"The main challenge is whether Seoul and Washington will be able to communicate with each other," said Duyeon Kim, an associate professor at the Seoul-based Center for a New American Security. Communication of this kind is the key to avoid surprise consequences in the US-South Korea alliance. Kim said there could be some surprises based on Trump's tough rhetoric toward allies.
also The US will not leave NATO, but this alliance is weakeningIn Japan, pundits have complained about the perceived shortcomings of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba compared to the late Shinzo Abe, known as "Trump's whisperer" in Asia, for his closeness to the president-elect during his first term.
Tokyo moved away from the pacifist Constitution imposed by the US after World War II, in 2022 it changed its approach and decided to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027 and to buy US cruise missiles .
States in the region are also watching to see if the Trump administration continues key parts of Biden's legacy: strengthening partnerships in Asia as part of the administration's "invest, align, compete" strategy to counter Beijing.
Biden strengthened the Quad security group (India, Japan, Australia and the US) and founded the AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) alliance, which aims to equip Canberra with nuclear submarines. It also mediated increased coordination in the field of security between Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia.
Trump – as an unpredictable force in the White House – can discard, maintain or even deepen alliances. But, at the same time, America's Asian allies will try to avoid any drop in support from the US.
"The US is now not the constant of international relations, but rather the variable," said Murata Koji, a professor of political science at Japan's Doshisha University. "This is the reason we need to expand our security (outside) the US," he said, also mentioning that Tokyo needs to deepen relations with Europe regarding common concerns.
China is watching carefully
Experts in the region feel that there are unlikely to be seismic changes in the US security presence under the Trump administration, in terms of troop reductions or the breakdown of alliances, especially given America's focus on the challenge posed by China.
"Geopolitical realities and circumstances will oblige him to try to maintain influence in the region. The scenario I'm thinking of is more of renegotiation than full withdrawal,” said Collin Koh, assistant professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
And countries will not only consider the potential downsides of Trump's return, Koh added, addressing perceptions in Asia that Biden hesitated on some decisions in Ukraine, complicating the situation for the beleaguered country.
"With Trump coming in, there can be hope that he won't be like Biden in terms of the crisis — maybe Trump will be more decisive," he said.
There are concerns, however, that in the event of expected aggressive economic policies towards China, there will be a breakdown in communication between the Chinese and US militaries, increasing the risks of confrontation between the two. And if US allies are hit by new US tariffs, they may have no choice but to become more dependent on the world's second-largest economy.
On the other hand, Trump signaled some interest in working with China, based on his recent statements on CNBC that he saw certain aspects of his post-pandemic policy toward China as "overreaching."
Then there is the question of how Trump will handle the Taiwan issue – a point that is seen as a potential trigger for conflict between the US and China.
An "insurance company"
Biden deliberately broke the American ambiguity by saying that the US would defend Taiwan if China invades the island. He also approved military aid for the island for the first time in response to Beijing's increased military pressure.
In contrast, President-elect Trump last year said he would review relations with Taiwan. He said in the Bloomberg interview that Washington was "not much different from an insurance company" for the island and said that Taiwan should pay the US for protection. In October, he told the Wall Street Journal that he would impose tariffs of 150% to 200% if China entered "Taiwan."
But how the Trump administration would react in the event of a crisis remains unknown. Marco Rubio, Trump's pick for secretary of state, is a staunch advocate for Taiwan, and JD Vance, Trump's vice-presidential pick, has said the US's supply of air defense systems to Ukraine could limit its ability to help defend itself. of Taiwan if China attacks.
This argument, however, has worried experts in Asia.
Many in the region believe that Trump's handling of the situation in Ukraine will send a decisive message to Russia's allies such as China, Iran and North Korea - a group of countries that some in the US fear could organize into an alliance. Those concerns may be particularly acute when it comes to China, which has been watching closely as it reviews its intentions in Taiwan.
Trump has suggested he would end the war in Ukraine "within 24 hours" and called for an "immediate ceasefire and negotiations" - a position that aligns with Beijing's stated stance on the war, which the US and its allies have criticized it as beneficial for Russia.
"I know Vladimir well. This is his time to react. China can help. The world is waiting!" - said Trump in a post on his social platform Truth Social in December.
And what the rhetoric means in practice could have far-reaching consequences in Asia.
"If Russia is allowed to walk away as if it has won from this ... then that strengthens this relationship (between Russia and China)," said Robert Ward, director of geo-economics and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the United Kingdom.
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"And Xi Jinping will be watching closely how credible NATO is. How willing is the West to put its skin in this conflict, and this is certainly related to Taiwan".
Translated by: Shkelzen Dema
