Russia and Turkey are stirring up trouble, the US is not thinking about another war in the Balkans, while the EU is focusing on its own problems.
At a recent closed-door meeting with experts, a well-informed German official was asked what problem worries him most in Europe. His answer came without hesitation: the Western Balkans, where a new crisis is being created, as Turkey and Russia are stirring the soup, writes the Wall Street Journal, Lapsi.al transmits.
In his worst case scenario, Russia and Turkey will encourage their "relatives" in the Balkans, Serbia and Albania, to help them redraw the region's borders.
The Serbian government, with Russian support, could annex large parts of Bosnia populated by ethnic Serbs.
Turkish support could help Albania take a similar maneuver, not only in Albanian Kosovo, but also in Macedonia, where most of the large Albanian minority want to be reunited with their homeland.
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This course of events is unlikely to happen, writes the WSJ.
As long as some of the territories claimed by Greater Albania are in Serbia, it would be difficult for the two countries to agree on a new map.
But that's not an unlikely outcome, even if the idea is more likely to inspire a James Bond a la type than a foreign secretary.
And an increasing number of Bond-type villains seem to be popping up in world politics these days.
There is a harsh reality underlying Germany's concerns.
The Balkans are unraveling and the West now has more to worry about than Russian meddling.
Turkey is increasingly becoming a powerful NINO (NATO in name only) and despite Turkey's deep suspicions of Russia, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is cooperating more closely with President Vladimir Putin.
Turkey and Russia are united by their opposition to Germany and the European Union.
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The Russians don't just hate NATO; They see the EU as an obstacle to Russia's historically powerful role in European affairs.
Turkey has also turned against the EU and is seeking leverage against Germany and its other members.
For Russia and Turkey, the ability to cause Europe problems in the Balkans, with relatively little risk and cost, is something that cannot be neglected.
The prospect of EU membership for countries like Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Bosnia has done more than anything else to keep the fragile peace in the Western Balkans. Every Balkan country would rather be part of the EU than be an ally of Russia or Turkey.
But hopes for short-term EU membership are fading. Europe is losing Britain and has had a hard time managing relationships with members like Hungary and Poland. 28 soon to be 27 – EU members who have little desire to take on five new Balkan states, which would make the union even more useless, and expect financial aid at a time when the EU budget , after Brexit, will be strained.
Serbs and Albanians are signaling that if the West leaves, they will have to look east and that means moving to a nationalist agenda with Russian and Turkish help.
For the EU, a new round of Balkan chaos would be a disaster: refugees, crime, radicalization among Balkan Muslims, greater opportunities for hostile powers to gain influence over EU spending. But the EU does not think it can manage the Balkans by itself. The United States will have to be part of the solution, the Germans say.
Will he play ball in the USA? Engaging in faraway Balkan strife to make Germany's life easier isn't exactly Donald Trump's idea of foreign policy. Bill Clinton fought for two years to keep the United States in the post-Yugoslav wars. Mr. Trump may be even more skeptical about intervening and handling the possibility of a new round of Balkan wars with the cool sensitivity that Barack Obama displayed in Syria. That would be a grave mistake. While strife in the Balkans is minor compared to larger problems elsewhere, what happens in the Balkans doesn't always stay in the Balkans, and NATO and the EU could be rocked to the core by another round of bloodshed in the Balkans. The crisis has the potential to redefine US-EU relations for decades.
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Europeans argue that the relatively small, short-term American investments – active diplomacy and the build-up of US forces in Kosovo – could have been more. But we have a president who cannot find this argument convincing. The main focus of Mr. Trump's foreign policy seems to be that the US has allowed its allies to enjoy a free ride for decades.
Europeans concerned about Balkan peace must consider how they can persuade a skeptical White House to engage. The old grievances – against NATO solidarity, the defense of freedom, fear of Russia – may not be enough. Mr. Trump is thinking about a deal, and Berlin needs to think about how to get it on the table.
