Serbia aims to challenge geopolitical balances in the Western Balkans

The formation of a military alliance between Kosovo, Albania and Croatia has sparked strong reactions in Serbia, where Serbian officials have again described it as an axis directed against their interests. Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric has warned of a counter-response, leaving open the possibility of creating a bloc with Hungary, while Serbian media have also mentioned Slovakia. Former Interior Minister and former Deputy Minister in the KSF, Bejtush Gashi, says that the creation of a new bloc, as warned by Serbia, could affect the geopolitical balance of the region, which could also have consequences for Euro-Atlantic integration.

Serbian officials have continued to dramatize the creation of a military alliance between Kosovo, Albania and Croatia, through a declaration signed last week by the defense ministers of the three countries. In this declaration, they have called the union an axis directed against Serbia. 

In response, Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric has mentioned the creation of an alliance with Hungary, while Serbian media have not excluded Slovakia either, considering them friendly countries of Serbia. 

"I think that everything that strengthens Serbia's capacity to act independently in the international arena, to protect its national interests and to increase the level of security of all citizens is positive. What has been achieved in relations with Hungary in the last 12 years, since the signing of the historic Agreement on National Reconciliation, is part of the legacy for future generations. This is a European example of how two nations can build a new type of relations and a great achievement of President Vučić's policy," Đurić told "Blic". 
In addition to his stances against Kosovo, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is known for his pro-Russian stances, even though his country is a member of NATO and the EU. 

Djuric has commented again about the tripartite alliance of Croatia, Albania and Kosovo.

"We have responded to this challenge with the alliance, which many call a kind of anti-Serb axis, with dignity, with arguments, referring to facts and demanding transparency and abandoning the politics of division and conflict. Our goal is not to win the debate, but to solve the problem," said Djuric.  

Serbia's "Blic" newspaper also quoted diplomat Zoran Milivojevic as saying that such an initiative by this country should also be considered with Slovakia. 

Leaders of the Serbian List have also declared themselves against Kosovo's cooperation with other countries in the field of security.

The chairman of this entity, Zlatan Elek, said that the militarization of the Western Balkans has always brought problems and disasters. 

"I regret that some of our citizens in central Serbia are not aware that we are under fierce attack from those who would like Serbia to cease to exist, and for Serbs to disappear from Kosovo, Republika Srpska, but also from Montenegro, North Macedonia. The militarization of the Western Balkans has always brought problems and misfortunes. Therefore, we need to stabilize the situation in the country and further strengthen it, which would dispel all those who think that Serbia is a handful of oats that any crow brought by the wind can swallow," said Eleku. 
But the signatories of the declaration at the Tirana meeting said that the declaration was not reached to threaten other countries in the Balkans.

Security expert Bejtush Gashi also sees such warnings from Serbia as part of a wide range of mechanisms to maintain and deepen its influence in the Western Balkans.

“This engagement has included undermining the region’s integration into the European Union, using political and military destabilization as a means to maintain its strategic positions and hinder the progress of its neighbors towards stability and integration into Western structures. In this context, Serbia has invested in the development and strengthening of its military industry and has sought support from other external actors, such as Russia and China, to increase its influence in the region and oppose the policies of the European Union and NATO. This engagement includes purchasing weapons from China and developing military and technological relations with states that share a similar vision of challenging Western hegemony,” said Gashi, a former Minister of Interior and former Deputy Minister of the KSF.

He adds that Serbia has always sought to maintain a neutral military position and deepen relations with traditional powers such as Russia, while also being interested in developing ties with other states, including Hungary and Slovakia. 

"This step can be seen as an opportunity for Serbia to deepen economic and political cooperation in the region and provide alternative options for protecting its interests, especially in a period when the influence of the European Union and the United States is increasingly visible in the Balkans," he emphasized. 

Gashi stressed that an agreement between Serbia and countries like Hungary and Slovakia could affect the geopolitical balance of the region. 

"This could bring about a 'rivalry' on several levels, countering the Western Balkans' efforts to strengthen ties with the European Union, while states like Hungary and Slovakia have an interest in maintaining a balance between Western politics and those that favor closer ties with the East, including Russia. Serbia, by maintaining such military neutrality and deepening ties with these states, could try to create a zone of influence that favors its national interests and hinders the advancement of Western forces in the region," Gashi emphasized. 

He mentioned the consequences for the region of the tendencies that Serbia and its allies may display. 

"This action could affect the Western Balkans' integration processes into the EU, as Serbia could try to create a 'mobile front' that hinders the consolidation of the region and helps maintain a 'status quo' that is favorable to Serbian interests. In a complicated geopolitical period, an agreement between Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia could bring new tensions and deepen divisions between the Balkan countries and the rest of Europe. Strengthening Serbia's influence in the region could cause concerns for other Balkan states, which could feel marginalized and jeopardize their efforts to integrate into the European Union and other international organizations. Also, such an alliance could cause new rivalries and destabilize the delicate geopolitical balance in the region, increasing the possibility of hidden or open conflicts," Gashi emphasized. 

The Kosovo-Albania-Croatia Memorandum, signed in Tirana on March 18, aims to strengthen the military industry, modernize capacities and confront security challenges in the Balkans. 

The signatories emphasized that cooperation does not threaten anyone, but is a guarantee of stability and peace in the region. 

The preamble indicates that the declaration was signed recognizing the strong and stable relations between the Republic of Albania, the Republic of Croatia and the Republic of Kosovo, based on shared values, strategic orientations and mutual commitments towards regional security and cooperation. Also, reaffirming the aim to strengthen trilateral security and defense cooperation to enhance security and stability in Southeastern Europe and the Adriatic-Ionian region.

Likewise, the preamble emphasizes that the declaration has been reached, also emphasizing the importance of joint efforts to respond to new security challenges, hybrid threats, and other risks that could undermine regional, European, and international stability.

“Taking immediate action to develop defence capabilities, recognising the ambitions stemming from NATO’s Strategic Concept and the European Union’s Strategic Compass, designed to enhance our ability to protect our territories and people, and to contribute to international peace and security”, the preamble states. “Advancing joint steps is also being taken to enhance cooperation in defence industrial production in line with NATO’s Commitment to Industrial Expansion and the European Union’s plan for ‘Rearmament of Europe’”. 

According to the signatories, the Kosovo-Albania-Croatia declaration leaves the possibility for other countries to join, as it has been announced that Bulgaria has received an invitation.