Stagnation in dialogue tests the EU

Eighteen months without a high-level meeting - dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia has remained stalled. With both countries embroiled in domestic challenges, a final agreement seems distant. Analysts argue that the international community should push for mutual recognition between them, not simply normalization of relations, and have a plan B if dialogue fails.

Peter Sorensen's first visit to Pristina, as the European Union's envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, came at a time when this process does not seem to be on anyone's agenda.

In Kosovo, attention remains on post-election issues, while Serbia faces protests and internal unrest.

Despite this, the European emissary's message was clear: the dialogue must continue.

"Dialogue is about making sure there are meetings. Whether that means compromise or not is up to the parties to determine. Dialogue is about that and that's what we've been doing since 2011," Sorensen said on March 17 in Pristina.

The first rounds of talks between Kosovo and Serbia began 14 years ago, mediated by the European Union. Over the years, they have progressed at times with greater speed, at times more slowly. There have been dozens of agreements and commitments, but many of them have not been implemented.

Meanwhile, the leaders have changed in Brussels, Pristina, and Belgrade, but so has the narrative. If there used to be talk of mutual recognition as the main goal, now there is only talk of normalizing relations between the two countries.

Sorensen, after meeting with Kosovo's state leaders, emphasized the need to continue the dialogue, but said he wants to hear from both sides before deciding on next steps.

"The goal is to continue the process and move forward. I have discussions here in Pristina, but I also need to go to Belgrade. After I have these conversations, I will sit down and see where we are," Sorensen said.

The two sides don't seem to be anywhere close. There have been no high-level talks between them since September 2023.

On the 14th of that month, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, and the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, met in Brussels, with the mediation of the then European leaders, Josep Borrell and Miroslav Lajčák.

Ten days after that meeting, the armed attack took place in Banjska, where armed groups of Serbs killed a Kosovo policeman.
Subsequent EU efforts to bring the two leaders together at the table have failed - largely due to conditions presented by one side that the other has rejected.

After meeting with Sorensen, both Kurti and Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani had a series of demands for him: from lifting EU punitive measures against Kosovo to handing over the group that attacked Banjska to Kosovo authorities.

For observers of the dialogue process, the ball is in the EU's court. They say it is time for the bloc to focus on one specific goal, which is mutual recognition between the two countries, because, in their view, this is the heart of the problem and it needs to be addressed directly.

Leon Hartwell, senior fellow at LSE IDEAS - London School of Economics, speaks more on Radio Free Europe's Expose program:

"It's really important that mutual recognition is put at the forefront of this dialogue, because the idea of ​​normalization is very vague. If you don't have a clear goal, you don't even try to achieve something specific."

"So, I think Sorensen needs to set this goal up front, so that he can move the parties in a certain direction and resolve this conflict once and for all," says Hartwell.
Vučić insists that Serbia will never recognize Kosovo's independence. His focus is on establishing the Association of Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo - something he often puts forward as a condition for continuing dialogue with the other side.

There has been an agreement for this association since 2013, but Kosovo - despite international pressure - has never implemented it, for fear that such a mechanism, with broad powers, could affect the functionality of the state.
Kosovo has long received a draft prepared by the EU for the statute of this association, but it also seems to be off the table now.

President Osmani said this week that the draft, as such, would not receive the green light from the country's Constitutional Court.

"I, personally, believe that it is not in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo, it is not in accordance with the values ​​and norms of the European Union and the standards of the Council of Europe, nor with the decision of the Constitutional Court of 2015," said Osmani.
An association with broad powers would come with the risk of creating a Republika Srpska in Kosovo, says Hartwell, referring to the Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has legislative power.

"There is a strong perception that the Association would help advance the dialogue, but I am very skeptical about that. One option perhaps for Kosovo would be to introduce a watered-down version of the Association and, in a way, implement it, just to silence the critics."

"But, I emphasize that implementing the Association with strong executive powers would become quite problematic for Kosovo," says Hartwell.

Kurt Bassuener, from the Berlin-based Council for Democratization Policy, says that Bosnia and Herzegovina, due to its internal organization, has remained an open issue for decades. He does not rule out the possibility that the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia will remain so, and suggests that all parties return to their original stated goal: mutual recognition.

"Nobody talks about mutual recognition anymore. Everyone talks about normalization, and that's not in the interest of Kosovo, and I would say it's not in the interest of a democratic Serbia either," says Bassuener.

In the wake of rapid geopolitical changes, he says that the Western Balkans in general is a region where the EU has great potential to influence the stabilization of the situation and the issue of Kosovo and Serbia, according to him, is essential for this stability.

"I hope there will be a reassessment and reorganisation of policies by the European Union. I see no evidence of this yet - neither in the EU institutions nor in the member states - although it will take longer to turn the ship in the other direction."

"It's understandable that they are focused on how to help the Ukrainians if the Americans withdraw, how to defend themselves legitimately... These are priorities, but the Western Balkans is the only place in the world where the EU can be truly decisive," Bassuener tells Exposé.
Analysts believe that the EU still has leverage over Kosovo and Serbia to push them towards an agreement, although making their European integration conditional on the normalization of relations has so far not yielded results.

Hartwell says the West needs to have a clear plan B if dialogue fails.

"One solution could be for the five states that have not yet recognized Kosovo to recognize it. Because, in that case, Serbia cannot say that the issue of recognizing Kosovo is still up in the air. It would have to deal with a Kosovo that is recognized by all EU member states. And, if it really wants to join the EU, Serbia will have to work within this framework," says Hartwell.
However, some have speculated that with President Donald Trump in the White House, Serbia has more room for maneuver, due to its closer ties - whether political or economic - with people close to Trump.

Therefore, analysts say that Kosovo's focus should be on maintaining bipartisan support in Washington.

According to Hartwell, the country should position itself as a reliable partner, especially in security and economic matters, as well as increase cooperation with the US in the fields of energy and defense.

In recent years, the Kosovo Government, led by Albin Kurti, has faced repeated criticism from American officials due to several actions in the north of the country, which they have described as uncoordinated and having a negative impact on the Serbian community.

The last known contact that Kosovo has had with the White House was a letter that President Trump sent to President Osmani, on the occasion of the 17th anniversary of Kosovo's independence, in February.

In that letter, Trump pledged to expand ties with Kosovo and did not mention the dialogue to normalize relations between Pristina and Belgrade.
The EU did not respond to Radio Free Europe's question about whether they plan to call a meeting between the leaders of the two countries anytime soon. It is also not clear whether they would respond to the invitation.

With Kosovo still without a new government, following the February elections, and with ongoing protests in Serbia, the only thing that is moving forward with certainty is the calendar.