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Economic decline

The year 2020 will go down in the history of Kosovo's citizenship as the year with the most severe economic crisis since the post-war period. Forecasts for growth of 4.2 percent were undermined by the crisis caused by Covid-19.

The pandemic shook the economies of the entire globe, negatively affecting the fragile economy of Kosovo.

In addition to the serious health situation, the Government began to implement strict control measures, which have frozen a large part of the country's economy. From mid-March to May, the country was almost completely blocked.

Businesses encountered difficulties to operate and provide services. The shutdown in March caused problems for businesses that are partners in the supply chain.

An emergency financial "injection" was requested for the private sector to avoid business bankruptcy. Damages to the economy were calculated to be between 6 and 10 million euros within the day.

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Even the economy, like the fight against the virus, has been affected by the political crisis. The Kurti government, while in office on March 30, approved an emergency package worth 179.6 million euros to come to the aid of damaged citizens and businesses.

The opposition parties have considered this package insufficient and late. PDK has proposed a package of its own worth 320 million euros.

However, the emergency package lost its effects due to delays in its implementation.

Almost 3 months after coming to power, the Hoti Government approved the Economic Recovery Package.

It took the government 5 months to pass the Law on Economic Recovery in the Assembly.

After six failures, in the seventh attempt the law was approved in the first reading. While in the second reading, the government submitted to PDK's demands to include 4 amendments proposed by it.

Its approval was followed by fierce debate in the Assembly. Vetëvendosje accused that certain businesses are being helped through this law.

Citizens were enabled to withdraw 10 percent of their savings from the Trust. In less than a week, more than half of the contributors applied for the withdrawal of funds.

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But this measure, according to an analysis by the GAP Institute, does not help to increase aggregate demand as the Government claimed, since it will not benefit those who really need it.

The government still has no official data on the damage caused by the pandemic and the loss of jobs.

According to the Employment Agency, only during the January-September period, 92 thousand more job seekers were registered, increasing the number to over 198 thousand job seekers.

Unemployment according to KAS until the beginning of October was 27.2 percent, or 1.9 percent more compared to the same period last year.

The number of families with social assistance was increased by 420 families, which is a total of 24 thousand 615 families.

As remittances sent by expatriates increased. Over 796 million euros was their value during this year, or 12 percent more than last year.

Despite this, the Central Bank of Kosovo predicts that the economic decline will be 7.2 percent. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has predicted that the decline will be up to 5 percent, while the World Bank has a darker scenario for an economic decline of up to 8.8 percent.

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Covid-19 has influenced the reduction of tax revenues in TAK by 8.4 percent. During the January-November period, 426.6 million euros were collected, or 39 million less than last year. Even from Customs, they are somewhere around 80 million euros less.

This decline will affect the economy in the first quarter of next year. The consequences will be felt throughout the year. The budget will shrink, and the priority of the Government is again expected to be highways.