The Vetëvendosje Movement will win 42.3 percent of the votes of citizens who have exercised their right to vote, according to the KOHA projection, which does not include votes from the diaspora. Translated into Assembly seats, based on this projection with a margin of error of up to 2.54 percentage points, this party will receive 47 seats.
In the 2021 elections, the Vetëvendosje Movement had more than 50 percent of the vote.
The Democratic Party of Kosovo will remain the second party with 21.3 percent of the vote. According to the projection, this party has received 23 seats in the Assembly.
The Democratic League of Kosovo has seen the biggest increase since the 2021 elections. From less than 13 percent, this party now counts 20.4 percent of the vote, based on the projection without the diaspora. In terms of seats, according to the new Assembly formula, this party will also have 23 seats.
The Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, in coalition with the Social Democratic Initiative and other groups, remains the fourth political force in Kosovo. This party will have 7 MPs. It received 6.3 percent of the votes.
Other political entities have not passed the 5 percent threshold to secure seats in the Assembly.
Allocation of seats in the Assembly:
KOHA conducted the survey with 1500 citizens up to three days before election day. The overall results have a margin of error of up to 2.53 percentage points. Of the 1500 respondents, 1300 are Albanians, 100 Serbs and 100 from other non-majority ethnicities.
The sample was constructed based on population census data in Kosovo, according to the 2024 census.
The sample is stratified into two levels based on the distribution of the 18+ population:
First stratification: For each sub-sample, stratification starts from the municipality level.
Second stratification: Municipalities are then divided at the level of residence (urban/rural).
Field survey procedures:
In each sample unit, starting points are determined (for example, school, mosque, church, etc.)
Surveyors follow the systematic method by visiting every third house on the left side of the street from the starting point.
Within each household, the interview is conducted with the adult whose birthday is closest to the date of the interview.
Weighing after data collection:
The weighting of results is used primarily to correct the overrepresentation of non-majority groups, according to Reko 2025.
The weights also include other variables such as age, gender and municipality, based on participation in the 2021 parliamentary elections in Kosovo.
