Economist Kujtim Dobruna has warned of the economic risks that the world and Kosovo may face in the coming weeks. He called the situation extremely serious, considering the near future a dramatic energy crisis.
In a Facebook post, Dobruna said that everything will start as a result of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which was attacked by the United States and Israel two months ago. This strait serves as a route for 20 percent of the world's oil.
And he said that as a result there is a shortage of oil and due to the damage to the production infrastructure in the Middle East there is not enough gasoline, kerosene and gas. According to Dobruna, reserves everywhere in the world have reached a critical point and are in danger of being exhausted by the end of May.
According to him, this means an even greater increase in the price of oil, and even "the moment the reserves are used up, that is, after about four weeks, this price could get out of control."
He wrote on Facebook that even if the market opens today and production starts, it would still take a long time for normalization.
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The consequences of this, according to Dobruna, will be the possibility of closing entire industries, damage to transport and logistics, inability to travel, halting production, increasing the cost of imports and exports, and shrinking the economy.
Agriculture, construction, manufacturing and tourism are the sectors most at risk, he said. He warned that there could also be a decline in remittances, investments and diaspora arrivals.
All of this, plus inflation, according to Dobruna, could happen by the end of May.
And he made fun of the current situation in Kosovo, saying that "we have smarter things to do, for example, run for the third time in the elections."
"Don't say we don't know!" he concluded.
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The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28. Iran responded by attacking US bases in the region and closing the Strait of Hormuz. The fighting has stopped due to a ceasefire agreed on April 8, but subsequent talks on a permanent peace agreement have not been successful.
Kosovo is already facing price increases due to rising fuel prices. The Ministry of Industry has set a profit margin for oil companies. Oil has risen in price by about half a euro since the start of the war.
