The Washington of 2020 had optimism and initiative; the Washington of 2026 has much less attention to the Balkans.
American experts on the region say that the administration is transactional, economic interests weigh more heavily, and Serbia seems to have adapted better to this reality than Kosovo.
Six years ago, US President Donald Trump aimed to do what European diplomacy had failed to achieve: bring Kosovo and Serbia closer together through the economy.
The agreement brokered by his administration was signed on September 4, 2020, at the White House.
It contained commitments for infrastructure connections, energy, investment and economic cooperation, but also issues that went beyond Kosovo-Serbia relations.
Kosovo, among other things, pledged to establish diplomatic relations with Israel and subsequently opened its Embassy in Jerusalem.
Trump presented the agreement as a historic commitment and economic normalization as a path toward resolving political problems between Kosovo and Serbia.
"I think they're going to have a great relationship. Economics can bring people together, and that's exactly what's happening here. My people have done a tremendous job," Trump said to then-Prime Minister of Kosovo, Avdullah Hoti, and President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić.
Economics, however, did not bring the two countries closer.
Relations between Kosovo and Serbia were marked by successive crises, especially in northern Kosovo, which culminated in the armed attack by a group of Serbs in Banjska in 2023.
Even the new agreements did not change the trajectory.
Under the mediation of the European Union, Kosovo and Serbia agreed in 2023 on the Agreement towards Normalization and the annex setting out steps to move it forward, but their implementation has stalled.
The dialogue lost momentum, while high-level meetings were interrupted.
The role that Washington chose to play also changed.
Just a few months after the Washington Agreement, Trump left the White House and Joe Biden assumed the presidency.
His administration pursued a more coordinated approach with European allies and gave the EU more room in efforts to normalize Kosovo-Serbia relations.
For Richard Kraemer, president of the US-Europe Alliance, this was the wrong approach.
He says Biden's goal of leaving more responsibility to Europe was understandable, but it didn't work.
“Isha i impresionuar që administrata Trump, gjatë mandatit të saj të parë, mori iniciativën dhe u angazhua drejtpërdrejt, duke e anashkaluar Bashkimin Evropian, i cili, pavarësisht synimeve të mira, nuk kishte arritur t’i sillte rezultatet e dëshiruara në zgjidhjen e konfliktit. Unë e kuptoj që presidenti Biden donte t’i përmirësonte marrëdhëniet me aleatët evropianë, pas qasjes shpesh të ashpër të administratës Trump ndaj tyre. Por, t’ia linte Evropës sërish në dorë këtë çështje, nuk duket se funksionoi”, thotë Kraemer për REL.
During the Biden administration, relations between Kosovo and the US suffered a setback.
The cause was a series of actions by Albin Kurti's government in northern Kosovo, which Washington considered uncoordinated and potentially harmful to the Serbian community.
For the first time, the US openly warned of consequences in relations with Kosovo.
Contacted by Radio Free Europe six years after the signing of the Washington Agreement, the US State Department said it was a historic step towards the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, as well as peace and stability in the region.
"We reiterate that normalization between Serbia and Kosovo remains essential to maintaining regional peace and stability," a State Department spokesperson said.
Kosovo's Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, currently in office, and Serbia's President, Aleksandar Vučić, have not met within the framework of the dialogue since September 2023, a few days before the armed attack in Banjska.
Kurti has said that talks cannot continue without the surrender of the suspects in the attack, which he accuses Serbia of orchestrating.
BE-ja nuk iu përgjigj pyetjeve të REL-it për të ardhmen e dialogut, por shefja e diplomacisë evropiane, Kaja Kallas, ka thënë më herët se po punon për organizimin e një takimi të nivelit të lartë.
"I am working separately with both [leaders] so that we can move forward with the implementation of the agreements that are already in place," Kallas said.
But today, the terrain is completely different.
Kosovo has spent more than a year and a half in political crisis, while Serbia faces its own internal problems.
Brussels is focused on the war in Ukraine and European security, while Washington also has an agenda filled with other crises and priorities.
"And here we are in 2026, with an American presidency overwhelmed with various crises and with a broad agenda, which it aimed to advance in the first year of its mandate. Now we are in the second year, some of these issues have stalled and what we don't see is Southeast Europe being a priority," says Kraemer.
David Kanin, professor of European Studies at Johns Hopkins University, says Kosovo has acted to some extent with the belief that Washington “will always be there.”
But, today, according to him, the country is without a clear strategic direction, involved in a deep political crisis and without a long-term plan.
"Serbs have proven to be much more successful than Kosovars in managing relations with Washington, especially since Kurti took power. I agree with him in essence when it comes to dialogue with Europeans, but Kurti doesn't get along with anyone. People don't like him and Vučić has managed to exploit this," Kanin tells Exposé.
In an increasingly transactional Washington, according to him, Kosovo was wrong when it refused to move forward with American liquefied gas.
He says that Pristina, unlike Belgrade, has not properly read the political importance that such a project could have in relations with the US.
“Serbia, Maqedonia e Veriut... kanë bërë marrëveshje për furnizim me gazin amerikan. Kosova ka bërë gabim në këtë çështje”, thotë Kanin.
Kraemer agrees that Serbia has been much more successful than Kosovo in building influence in Washington, especially through lobbying and connections with people close to Trump.
As an example of the power of these networks, he also mentions the removal of the former president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, and his family from the US sanctions list in 2025.
Serbia, in July, also launched the Strategic Dialogue with the United States, while with Kosovo it has remained suspended for a year.
Washington has conditioned its launch on the fulfillment of several conditions, including commitments to the Serbian minority.
Kraemer says that in this transactional logic of the American administration, Kosovo has little to offer, as it does not have great economic or strategic weight to use as leverage.
But, according to him, it can compensate for that by emerging from the political crisis, proving itself as a serious and stable partner and taking on difficult decisions in the dialogue, including establishing the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities.
"You have to show that you are serious and willing to sit at the table, negotiate and discuss issues that may not necessarily be popular, but that need to be addressed. Instead of secondary issues dictating the direction, there needs to be more focused leadership on where Kosovo should go. Political clashes do not bring any good to the citizens of the country," says Kraemer.
Kanin sees this status quo as dangerous, even if the situation seems calm for the moment.
“Nuk ka ndonjë rrezik të menjëhershëm, nuk ka ndonjë krizë urgjente. Por, nëse papritur do të ndodhte diçka - le të themi një Banjskë tjetër apo edhe më serioze - ajo do t’i zinte të gjithë në befasi. Raportet mes Kosovës dhe Shteteve të Bashkuara, aktualisht, janë lënë shumë në plan të dytë në Uashington dhe nuk jam i sigurt se çfarë synon të bëjë Kurti me to”, thotë ai.
Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump has claimed several times that he prevented a war between Kosovo and Serbia.
He has said that Serbia was preparing for a "big war", but that he stopped it through trade pressure.
White House already lists Kosovo and Serbia among the conflicts that Trump claims to have ended.
In December 2025, Trump signed another LAW which reaffirms American policy towards Kosovo and Serbia.
He supports a final agreement based on mutual recognition and calls for progress in implementing the 2023 agreement, linking it to strengthening US relations with both countries.
On the ground, this goal seems further away than ever.
Kanin says foreigners should stop claiming they can solve the problem and leave the responsibility for the solution to Kosovo and Serbia.
But, waiting has its own risks.
With Washington distracted and Belgrade feeling more favored, Kraemer warns that Serbia may be tempted to change the reality in northern Kosovo outside of legal channels.
On one thing, however, they both agree: The Washington Agreement, which six years ago was declared historic, has today disappeared almost without a trace.